Demand may increase, and aluminum may be supported

Inventory analysis: This week, the trend of Lun aluminum inventory generally maintained a downward trend, the latest inventory reported 927,000 metric tons, a total reduction of 8,200 metric tons, a decrease of about 0.
9%; The total aluminum stock on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week was 361977 tons, down 17,030 tons, or about 4.
5%,
from last week.

Macro information: Domestically, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 2.
6% year-on-year in July and decreased by 3.
1% in June, and the year-on-year growth rate turned from negative to positive
.
Internationally, consumer confidence in the United States eased slightly in August, as optimism about the current situation rose to its highest level since late 2000, offsetting weaker economic outlook
.

Aluminum market dynamics:

1.
Alcoa forecasts a global deficit of between 1 million tons and 1.
4 million tons in 2019, down from 1.
5 million tons to 1.
9 million tons expected in the previous quarter; Global aluminum demand growth in 2019 is between 1.
25% and 2.
25%, lower than expected in the previous quarter
.

2.
RUSAL produced 1,867 thousand tons of primary aluminum in the first half of 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
2%.

In addition, RUSAL's primary aluminum sales in the second quarter were about 1,082 thousand tons, an increase of 20.
8%
over the previous quarter.

Looking ahead, Sino-US trade relations have been repeated, market panic has heated up to suppress metal demand, and spot aluminum prices have fluctuated
weakly this week.
In August, the market entered the consumption season, demand may increase, aluminum prices may be supported, and spot aluminum prices are expected to rebound
next week.