Demand is expected to weaken Shanghai rubber still has downside

Spot price: Shanghai market 15 years Yunxiang state-owned whole milk quotation of 15500 yuan / ton (+0).

Qingdao area Thai RMB mixed rubber 16000 yuan / ton (+0), Vietnam 3L mixed rubber quotation 16000-16100 yuan / ton (+0), Thailand 3# tobacco tablets 16300-16500 yuan / ton (+0).

Free Trade Zone, RSS3 Honmanli Tobacco Tablets 2150 USD/ton (+0); The spot cargo of Thailand Standard is 1850-1900 US dollars / ton (+15), and the cargo of April to June is 1860-1900 US dollars / ton (+15).

Externally, RSS3# is trading at $2440/ton (+50), and STR20# is trading at $1980-1990/ton (+0).

Thailand's raw material purchase prices rose, raw film 70.
81, up 1.
93; smoke film 74.
64, up 1.
85; glue 66.
00, flat; cup glue 56.
00, up 0.
50 (baht/kg).

Inventories: As of the end of March 2017, rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to rise to 197,900 tons, up 10,900 tons, or 5.
83%,
from 187,000 tons in mid-March.
Among them, natural rubber was 144,800 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons, an increase of 5.
31%; synthetic rubber 48,700 tons, an increase of 03,600 tons, an increase of 7.
98%; Composite rubber was 04,400 tons, the same as in mid-March; the inventory of sky rubber and synthetic rubber showed an increase
of more than 5%.

Automobile production and sales and inventory index: In March, the domestic heavy-duty truck market sold about 106,000 vehicles of all types, a sharp increase of 42% from 74,800 units in the same period last year and 23% from February to a new high in the same period in the past six years from 2012 to 2017, second only to the same period in 2010 (118,000 units) and the same period in 2011 (130,000 units).

Although this year-on-year increase is far inferior to the 125% growth in January and 147% in February
.
According to the "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Early Warning Index Survey" released by the China Automobile Dealers Association, the inventory warning index in March 2017 was 61.
9%, down 4.
7 percentage points
from the previous month.
The inventory warning index is above
the warning line.

Import and export of tianjiao: China's natural and synthetic rubber imports in February 2017 were 560,000 tons, and 1.
07 million tons
from January to February.
This represents an increase of 39.
5%
compared to the same period last year.
In February 2017, China's imports of natural rubber (including latex, compound/mixed rubber, standard glue, tobacco flake glue) were 401,300 tons, an increase of 2.
67% month-on-month and 69.
93%
year-on-year.

Industry news: The Thai Rubber Authority bid on March 31, this bidding auction of the remaining 104,643.
19 tons of rubber, including RSS3 and STR20, according to the latest market news, no companies participated in the auction, the specific details will continue to follow
.

The growth rate of the manufacturing industry slowed down in March, and the probability of accelerating the expansion of the economy in the future is very low, and the economy may turn downward
in the second quarter.
The symbolic significance of Xiong'an New Area is greater than the substantive significance of China's economy, and it will take a long time for the policy to be implemented, and the current supply and demand relationship will not be reversed
immediately.
Tianjiao cutting season is coming, tire inventory pressure is high, the year-on-year growth rate of heavy truck sales is gradually declining, demand is expected to weaken, Shanghai rubber still has downward space, it is recommended to rebound and short thinking, do not blindly copy the bottom
.