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During the long Spring Festival holiday, the external market continued to rise sharply, and the dollar index hit a three-week low, bringing support
to the metal market.
Among them, the international copper price hit a new high
in more than 8 years.
London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures updated multi-year highs for the third consecutive session, and copper prices have risen 93%
since last March.
On the supply side, copper concentrate supply in 2021 is already tight, with a long TC of US$60.
8/ton, and spot TC is less than US$50/ton, compared with the continued expansion of copper smelting capacity, concentrate supply is stretched
.
At the same time, in mid-to-late January, there were disturbances such as another blockade in Peru, storms in Chilean ports, and the blockage of roads at the Las Bambas copper mine, which made the actual supply of copper concentrate likely to be lower than originally expected
.
From the seasonal point of view, January to February is the off-season of production, and the domestic smelting maintenance in the first quarter is more concentrated, and the lack of raw material supply may further restrict the actual output, and it is difficult for refined copper output to rise
significantly.
On the demand side, under the initiative of celebrating the New Year in place, there may be a faster recovery after the holiday, and the actual consumption is significantly better than in previous years
.
In terms of inventory, an average of 14,600 tons were accumulated in January of the past four years, and 12,800 tons
were reduced in January 2021.
According to the survey, orders in the first quarter were relatively full, which reflects that spot demand is indeed strong
.
In summary, copper stocks may hover
at low levels for a longer period of time when the supply and demand side is relatively healthy.
After the Spring Festival, copper demand is about to enter the consumption season, and in the context of low overall explicit inventory, copper prices have sufficient
upward momentum.
