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PVC futures continued the low rebound trend, the market opened in a narrow low range, accurately stepped back to the five-day moving average support after stopping the decline and stabilizing, returned to the 10-day moving average above the operation, further broke the 5800 mark, recorded three consecutive Yang.
Futures continued to be red, boosting the confidence of market participants, the domestic PVC spot market sentiment continued to recover, mainstream prices in various regions rose steadily, and low-priced supplies decreased
.
On the macro front, the Fed raised interest rates for the sixth consecutive monetary policy meeting, and this time raised interest rates by 75 basis points, which was basically in line with market expectations
.
After several sharp 75 basis point rate hikes, the impact of this round of interest rate hikes on commodities has weakened significantly in both time and space, and the market has always had full expectations
.
Affected by this, PVC still has a strong rebound
even if its own fundamentals are weak.
Last week, the market price of calcium carbide was significantly lowered, and the ex-factory quotation in Ningxia and Wuhai, the main production areas, was lowered by 350 yuan / ton, and the terminal purchase price was reduced
to varying degrees.
As of November 4, the calcium carbide operating rate was 75.
5%, an increase of 6% month-on-month, while the demand side PVC continued to decline, the loss of enterprises intensified, load reduction and temporary parking increased, calcium carbide demand fell rapidly and the price fell
rapidly 。 As of November 3, the overall weekly operating load rate of PVC was 67.
1%, down 5.
4 percentage points from the previous month; among them, the calcium carbide PVC starting load rate was 65.
79%, down 5.
16 percentage points from the previous month; the ethylene PVC starting load rate was 71.
78%, down 6.
24 percentage points
from the previous month.
Last week, some maintenance enterprises recovered in the early stage, the price of PVC prices weakened, the production cost of chlor-alkali enterprises returned to the margin of profit and loss, the epidemic led to transportation restrictions in some areas, the market arrival was poor and the upstream factory inventory increased, the absolute value of social inventory is still high
year-on-year.
In terms of imports and exports, the price of PVC market in Asia remained stable, CFR China reported 780 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia reported 760 US dollars / ton, CFR India reported 820 US dollars / ton, the import window opened weekly import transaction increased significantly
.
From the supply side, PVC profits continue to decline, and the enthusiasm for starting work is insufficient, resulting in inventory destocking with the decline in supply; However, the demand side is still insufficient, and the downstream of PVC still maintains a low operating level, coupled with the epidemic in many places, and the demand recovery is slow
.
Although there is a short-term destocking performance, it is still at a high level
year-on-year.
With the end of the peak season, PVC demand gradually enters the off-season
.
PVC price rebound is expected to be highly limited
.
