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The new crown pneumonia epidemic continued to spread during the long Spring Festival holiday, which triggered the "butterfly effect", and the CBOE volatility index, known as the fear index overseas, soared to a three-month high
.
It can be seen that during the Spring Festival holiday, the price of Japanese rubber futures fell mainly, from 191 yen / kg to 177 yen / kg, a cumulative decline of more than
7%.
In addition, international crude oil prices and several major foreign stock indexes have also declined
.
The accumulation of bearish factors led to a collective plunge in China's commodity market after the holiday, among which the Shanghai rubber futures 2005 contract closed
with a drop stop.
However, with the release of bearish sentiment, rubber prices launched an over-bearish rebound market, which has climbed to the range of 11390-11535 yuan / ton yesterday, but has not fully covered the previous downward gap
.
In terms of supply and demand, Southeast Asian production areas have gradually entered a shutdown since January, and the world has entered a low production period, and raw material prices in production areas have remained firm, which has some support
for rubber prices.
Domestic production areas have stopped cutting since the end of last year, and domestic rubber imports continue to weaken
.
In terms of inventory, rubber stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to the lowest level in recent years, and the inventory pressure was greatly reduced; No.
20 warehouse receipts increased steadily, focusing on the delivery of the first batch of contracts; The growth rate of rubber stocks in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was not as fast as in previous years
.
On the demand side, during the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of domestic automobile tire factories fell to the low level of the year, and due to the impact of the epidemic, the recovery time after the holiday will be delayed, and transportation and logistics will be seriously affected
.
Domestic car sales improved in December, but declined throughout the year, dealer inventory pressure remains, and sales will fall
sharply in January and February of the new year.
Overall, after entering February, due to the suspension of production areas, the supply side entered a state of seasonal tightness, but the demand side fell sharply due to the impact of the epidemic, and we paid attention to the recovery of the future market
.
