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Aluminum market midday comment: the dollar rose, overnight Lun aluminum closed down $22; The cost of electrolytic aluminum has weakened, and the market's concerns about weak downstream demand still exist, and macro sentiment has suppressed the upward trend of aluminum prices, and aluminum may fall
today.
Coal rose overnight, Lun aluminum rushed back down to close the shade, Shanghai aluminum opened slightly higher in the night session, and closed in a narrow range to close at 18770
.
Shanghai aluminum trading declined, positions rose, and market sentiment was slightly optimistic
.
Policy factors have led to inactive trading of Shanghai aluminum, and the future market may continue to rebound
gradually with Lunaluminum aluminum.
Upper pressure 20500, lower support 18500
.
On the macro front, the weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls data did not have a greater impact on market interest rate hike expectations, and the US index continued to rise, and the nonferrous metal was under pressure
above.
Fundamentally, as aluminum prices continue to fall, downstream consumption has picked up, and the recent aluminum ingot social inventory continued to maintain destocking this week, according to SMM data, Monday fell 24,000 tons
from last Thursday.
In the context of dematerialization of inventory, the support below the aluminum price has strengthened, and the current price has been close to the cost, we believe that the aluminum price may temporarily stop falling
in the short term.
However, it is difficult for the overall demand side to improve in the off-season, so it is difficult to see a strong upward drive
for the time being.
In addition, the Winter Olympics and the dual control of energy consumption have once again affected the supply side, and aluminum prices are still likely to
rebound.