December 28 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

From a macro perspective, the Fed's policies are gradually being implemented in December, but short-term news is difficult to fluctuate sharply, and macro has limited impact on prices; On the cost side, the average alumina price in various places has fallen to 2800-2900 yuan / ton in recent days, and the cost is currently in the bottoming stage, in addition, the supply expectation of "dual control of energy consumption" interference is still tight, and the contradiction between supply and demand has not been effectively resolved
.

The recent European energy crisis fermentation, coupled with the tightening of Russian natural gas supply caused market supply concerns, domestic electricity prices fluctuated relatively little, overseas electricity costs hit a record high for aluminum prices to build a bottom, the news of domestic production increases and decreases at the end of the year was relatively transparent, there was no bright spot, aluminum ingot social library is still in the destocking stage but the rate has begun to slow down, and the pattern of weak fundamental supply has not turned
.
Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile
.
In addition, the spread of the mutant strain Omicron has intensified, and the deployment of multiple national defense epidemics has been upgraded, which has disrupted the supply and transportation of raw materials, and it is necessary to be cautious that the epidemic has repeatedly triggered a phased market risk aversion
.