December 22 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

From a fundamental point of view, the contradiction between the supply and demand level of aluminum in the near future is not obvious, only individual enterprises on the supply side have plans to resume production, and the demand side has improved under the condition that downstream processing enterprises make up for work
.
From the perspective of inventory, the domestic social treasury destocking fell to 891,000 tons on Monday, the destocking rate slowed down from last week, and overseas inventories maintained a slight destocking
.
The destocking range will continue to slow down, mainly due to the poor new orders for architectural aluminum profiles, the downward certainty of the operating rate of aluminum cables, and the difficulty of continuous destocking in the off-season background
.

Recently, the European energy crisis is still continuing, and yesterday's European natural gas prices rose by more than 20%, hitting a new high, causing the market to worry about smelter shutdown and production reduction, most of the nonferrous metals in the external disk rose, driving the Shanghai metal to rise, Shanghai aluminum continued to rise after the break, short-term macro favorable promotion of aluminum prices still have some room to rise, but back to fundamentals, the current market does not recognize the 20,000 high price, downstream to keep wait-and-see, coupled with the difficulty of improving consumption a few years ago, it is expected that the follow-up price still has the possibility of falling, short-term cargo merchants can take advantage of high shipments, Shanghai aluminum focuses on the oscillation range of 1.
96-20,200.