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First, the fundamentals
First, the fundamentals1.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina output in November 2022 was 6.
802 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.
3%; The cumulative output from January to November was 75.
341 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
8
%.
Among them, the output of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi and Guangxi from January to November increased by 0.
70%, 5.
54% and 13.
19%
year-on-year, respectively.
2.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in November 2022, China exported 455,500 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, down 10.
5% year-on-year; From January to November, the cumulative export was 6.
1318 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.
3%.
In November, China imported 255,700 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, down 35.
7% year-on-year; From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 2.
1327 million tons, down 28.
2%
year-on-year.
The four main sources of aluminum alloy ingots in November 2022 were Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea
.
3.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in November, China's alumina imports were 196,000 tons, down 21.
8% month-on-month and up 24.
2% year-on-year; Exports were 85,000 tons, up 45.
6% month-on-month and 984.
9% year-on-year, of which 80,000 tons were exported to Russia, up 54.
6% month-on-month, accounting for 93.
7% of the month's
exports.
From January to November, China's cumulative imports of alumina were 1.
866 million tons, down 39.
3% year-on-year; The cumulative export was 950,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 719.
5%.
4.
The relaxation of power curtailment measures has allowed some regions to accelerate production, while benefiting from the commissioning of new plants, China's primary aluminum production in November increased
year-on-year.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in November was 3.
41 million tons, an increase of 9.
4% year-on-year, and primary aluminum production in November was equivalent to an average daily output of 113,667 tons
.
Primary aluminum production from January to November was 36.
77 million mt, up 3.
9%
year-on-year.
Over the past nine months, primary aluminium production has recorded a year-on-year increase
on a monthly basis.
5.
According to data from the International Aluminium Association (IAI), global primary aluminum production in November 2022 was 5.
611 million tons, compared with 5.
406 million tons in the same period last year, and the revised value in the previous month was 5.
797 million tons
.
Second, the market review
Second, the market review
In December, the overall domestic aluminum price was in a wide range, and the overall trend was better than that of the external market
.
At the beginning of the month, Shanghai aluminum was boosted by the liberalization of China's epidemic control and the strengthening of economic growth expectations, the disk shock preference, the beginning of the month maintained a trend of 3 consecutive rises, and rose to the high of the month 19375, but in the strong expectations, weak reality, Shanghai aluminum rally is difficult to continue, and the market is still uncertain about the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, so the high of the plate fell, in the middle of the period, the Fed interest rate hike results landed, as expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but hawkish remarks, but also formed a certain suppression of the trend of Shanghai aluminum, And with China's recent relaxation of epidemic restrictions, the new crown infection cases soared, the market is worried that metal demand will be affected, Shanghai aluminum weakness continues, the second half of the day once fell to the low of the month 18375, at the end of the month, China promised to introduce economic stimulus measures The market expects the metal demand outlook to improve, Lun aluminum stopped falling, soared, and broke through the pressure level of 19,000 again, but the increase in infection cases in China is worrying, and the rise in Shanghai aluminum has not lasted, and it weakened again at the end of the month
.
In the spot market, the traditional consumption off-season, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the East China electrolytic aluminum market was cold in December, and the frequency of traders' operations also decreased; Downstream enterprise orders decreased, especially aluminum profile enterprises, most small and medium-sized enterprises mostly said that after the New Year's Day will basically be a holiday; Overall, the trading volume of the East China electrolytic aluminum market in December fell significantly
.
It is expected that with the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday and the increase in corporate holidays, the market will show a situation
of priceless market for most of January.
East China: The overseas macro environment is still unstable, and the market is still doubtful about the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike; Domestic epidemic prevention and control optimization relaxed, many places across the country ushered in the peak of the epidemic outbreak, enterprise shutdown and production increased, especially in the middle and late months, affected orders and transportation and other reasons, December electrolytic aluminum price overall performance soared back down, East China spot aluminum price once rose to around 19,500, as of the end of the month, the price between 18660-18700 yuan / ton, down 290 yuan / ton from the end of November, spot discount 30
.
South China: As of the end of December, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingots with tickets was between 18910-19010 yuan / ton, down 330 yuan / ton from the end of November, and the current price difference between South China and East China was 280 yuan / ton; This month, spot trading in the South China market has increased significantly, spot prices fluctuate during the month, and downstream is mostly concentrated in the middle and low price stages at the end of the month, and some enterprises have prepared inventory for the next year; Holders have recently stopped panic dumping and carried out more stable shipments; The overall supply and demand of the market is still relatively weak, so the actual reduction of inventory in South China is also limited, and it is expected that the market transaction may fall to a new low in the near future, but it is still expected to usher in a wave
of construction in the next year.
3.
Inventory
Inventory
LME aluminum inventories in December continued the downward trend in November, but the decline slowed down, with LME aluminium stocks at 453375 tonnes at the end of the month, down -47,850 tonnes from the end of November, down 9.
6%; The decline in LME aluminum inventory has limited impact on the price, and the price of LME aluminum in December is still dominated by the macro surface, and the overall performance has risen and fallen
.
As of the end of the month, the aluminum inventory in the previous period was 95,881 tons, down 14,136 tons from the end of November, a decrease of 12.
8%; In addition, it is understood that as of December 29, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 493,000 tons, down 23,000 tons
from the inventory at the end of November.
Fourth, the waste market
Fourth, the waste marketIn December, the price of scrap aluminum was affected by weak demand, and the overall performance fell in the market, ranging from 100-300 yuan, and the price performance of individual regions and varieties was stable, and there was no obvious variety difference for the time being; By the end of December, the South China market clean machine aluminum mainstream around 14600, aluminum line around 16700, 6063 old material around 14600; East China aluminum alloy spraying old material mainstream around 14300, white material around 15100, cans around 12800, aluminum wire around 16750; In terms of aluminum alloy ingots, as of the end of December, the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China was around 18,900 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan
from the end of November.
In December, the scrap aluminum market was seriously affected by the epidemic, the prevention and control optimization policy was relaxed, the number of infected people increased sharply, and the lack of market personnel led to obstruction of transportation and production was also affected; It is understood that retail investors leave the market early, and some small and medium-sized scrap aluminum freight yards also have early holidays due to physical, market and other reasons, and the market scrap aluminum resources have decreased again; Orders from downstream recycled aluminum manufacturers have also declined significantly, especially aluminum profile companies, which are greatly affected by the downturn in the real estate industry, and enterprises mainly purchase more low prices
.
In addition, it is understood that the holiday of aluminum plants is mostly concentrated in two time periods, one is that there are more shutdowns and production in the week after New Year's Day, that is, the company will gradually stop production next week; Second, concentrated around January 15, the holiday of large factories is generally late, and the Spring Festival is also mostly non-stop, mainly because of the suspension of procurement, and the suspension time is short
.
From the perspective of starting construction after the holiday, due to the impact of the epidemic and demand this year, the holiday time of enterprises has been extended, and some enterprises have a holiday of more than 30 days, and the start of construction is concentrated around the sixth to eighth day of the first year and the Lantern Festival
.
With the gradual holiday of enterprises next week, the trading volume will plummet, and the situation of scrap aluminum falling or not rising will appear again, and the market will gradually show a situation
of price and no market.
After the Spring Festival, it is expected that the market will recover slowly, the epidemic will still have an impact on market transportation and the flow of personnel, the market circulation supply will be more tight, and the price of scrap aluminum may rise after the holiday
.
5.
Market outlook
Market outlook
The weak operation of aluminum prices in December was mainly due to weak demand in the off-season to suppress prices
.
The holiday is approaching and the impact of the epidemic, the downstream aluminum processing start has declined significantly, and it is expected that the off-season atmosphere will continue for at least one month in the future, consumption will continue to weaken, and the price pressure is not small
.
However, at present, there are still low inventories and supply disturbances, which give some support
to aluminum prices.
At present, the domestic aluminum ingot social library is still at a low level, and the destocking is still continuing, and before the inventory inflection point has not appeared, if it is not for the macro to exceed the expected major bearishness, it is expected that there will still be support
below the aluminum price.
