December 2021 cable raw materials (aluminum) monthly report

First, the fundamentals

1.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's electrolytic aluminum production in November decreased by 1.
8% year-on-year to 3.
101 million tons, down 0.
99% month-on-month, 1.
80% year-on-year, and 10.
5 percentage points
year-on-year.
Affected by limited electricity production, the supply of electrolytic aluminum has decreased
.

2.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's alumina output in November 2021 was 6.
05 million tons, down 4.
5% year-on-year; The cumulative output from January to November 2021 was 71.
153 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
3%.

It is understood that among them, Shandong alumina ranks first, accounting for about 37% of the national output, followed by Shanxi and Guangxi
.

3.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November 2021 was 509,300 tons, an increase of 6.
2% month-on-month and 20.
1%
year-on-year.
From January to November 2021, the cumulative export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 5.
0563 million tons, an increase of 14.
9%
over the previous year.
Hit a new high in total exports since March 2020
.

4.
Data show that China's alumina imports in November 2021 were 157,900 tons, down 61,500 tons, or 28.
03%; The export volume of alumina was 07,900 tons, an increase of 02,200 tons, or 38.
6%; Net imports of alumina were 150,000 tonnes
.

5.
China's bauxite imports in November were 7.
7 million tons
.
This was down 19% from 9.
54 million mt in October and down 6.
6%
year-on-year.
Bauxite imports from January to November fell 5.
2% year-on-year to 98.
69 million mt
.

June and November, imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum (including primary aluminum, unprocessed aluminum and alloy aluminum) were 397,915 tons, an increase of 34% from 297,043 tons in October and a year-on-year increase of 109.
3%.

This is the highest monthly import volume since August 2020, bringing imports in the first 11 months of the year to 2.
97 million mt, breaking the annual record
of 2.
7 million mt in 2020.

Second, the market review

In December, Shanghai aluminum rebounded at a low level, and aluminum prices bottomed out and rose above 20,000, with a cumulative monthly increase of 7.
8%; Affected by the European energy crisis, the shortage of overseas supply gradually became apparent, coupled with the "14th Five-Year Plan" clearly put forward the commitment of commodity production capacity only to reduce but not increase, the contradiction between supply and demand gradually became one of the
main factors affecting aluminum prices.

In terms of the market, the market transaction in the first half of the year is acceptable, some companies in order to deliver orders, driven short-term demand, but at the end of the year rush demand ended, consumption weakened and aluminum prices continued to rise and fall, downstream market receipt volume fell significantly, aluminum profile enterprises started also down, dragging down market transactions, it is expected that January by the Spring Festival factors, the transaction will still fall
.

South China: South China aluminum ingot prices fluctuated upward in December, pulling back the decline in November, as of December 31, the price of South China aluminum ingots with tickets was 20580-20680 yuan / ton, up 1390 yuan / ton from the end of November; In the spot market, the Spring Festival is approaching, market consumption has declined, enterprise production has been controlled, and transaction has weakened
.

East China: In the first half of the year, the market news was relatively calm, aluminum prices maintained a volatile trend, starting in the middle and late months, the CPI in November hit the largest increase in 40 years, the macro is favorable, and the European energy crisis, forcing electrolytic aluminum manufacturers to reduce production, stop production and other news stimulated, the market speculation mood again, aluminum prices in response, ushered in a wave of rising market, spot aluminum prices back above 20,000, as of the end of the month, Fubao spot aluminum prices between 20310-20350 yuan / ton, up 1480 yuan from last month / tons, up 7.
85%.

3.
Inventory

LME aluminum stocks in December ended the continuous decline since March this year, and there was accumulation, as of the end of December, LME aluminum stocks were 959,700 tons, an increase of 58,725 tons or 6.
52% compared with November; The overall trend of increasing and then decreasing during the month once reached 67,750 tons
.
As of December 24, the growth rate of domestic Shanghai aluminum stocks slowed down significantly, and as of December 24, Shanghai aluminum stocks were 329,190 tons, an increase of 503 tons from the previous month, ending a three-month rise
.
In terms of spot inventory, as of December 30, electrolytic aluminum stocks in the eight mainstream consumption areas of the country fell below 800,000 tons, at 799,000 tons, and the recent inventory decline was obvious, which supported the price
.

Fourth, the waste market

In December, due to the continuous rise in prices, the tight supply of scrap aluminum market has intensified, and the willingness of holders to raise prices is strong, the market transaction price is 100-200 yuan higher, and the flattening price of cans has reached around 14400 at the highest, and the source of 1 series goods is even more sought-after
.
In addition, it is understood that at present, some large freight yards have begun to prepare inventory, and some aluminum profile companies said that due to orders, this year's holiday will be advanced
.

According to Fubao statistics, the current mainstream price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in East China is around 19900, only 400 yuan / ton compared with the end of November, it is expected that the demand for affected before the holiday will weaken, and the phenomenon of stagflation may be difficult to improve
.

The Spring Festival is approaching, most manufacturers are about to enter the stocking stage, the demand for scrap aluminum has increased, coupled with the support of its own tight supply, the situation that scrap aluminum is easy to rise and fall has not changed
.

5.
Market outlook

The recent macro favorable impact or gradually faded, but the domestic December official manufacturing PMI data picked up slightly, near the end of the year market orders remain relatively stable, the price undoubtedly also has some support, as far as the future market, as the macro interference gradually fades, aluminum prices or again return to the fundamental dominance, in the overseas inventory decline stabilized, aluminum prices continue to rise or has been limited, or there is a high fall; The upper pressure level can be concerned about 21,000, and the stable oscillation range refers to 1.
9-20,500
.