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First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternationally: The U.
S.
Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index hit its highest level since 2001 in December, reflecting U.
S.
consumers' increased
confidence in the economic outlook under Trump.
Home prices in 20 U.
S.
cities hit their highest
levels since the financial crisis for the second month in a row in October.
The analysis believes that under the influence of the recovery of mortgage interest rates and the limited growth rate of wages and personal income, the rise in house prices is difficult to sustain.
The data also showed that the US second-hand housing signing index fell 2.
5% in November, the lowest since January, far below market expectations, indicating that rising interest rates are putting pressure
on the housing market.
Strong spending during the Christmas holiday in the United States is expected to drive the largest increase in sales in more than a decade
.
Driven
by lower unemployment and low oil prices, as well as higher real disposable income.
Domestic: According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the profit growth rate of China's industrial enterprises rose sharply to 14.
5% in November, the second highest since 2016, and the growth rate of main business income and profit in the month has exceeded the GDP growth rate year-on-year, indicating that the economy has indeed shown a trend of stabilization and recovery
.
It is expected that industrial enterprises and private investment will continue to rise due to the recovery of profits and incomes, while inventories are at historical lows and have more upside, and inventories and investment will be an important driving force
for the economy in 2017.
From January to November, among the 41 industrial industries, the total profit of 30 industries increased year-on-year, 1 was flat and 10 decreased
.
Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 2.
7 times, and the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 37.
4%.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): According to cable network monitoring data, the domestic copper price rally in December failed to continue, and began to turn to a weak market
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 46750 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month was 44980 yuan / ton, down 1770 yuan, a decrease of 3.
79%.
Macro aspect: In December, the market was intertwined with long and short prices, and there were many
risk factors.
Domestically, the "Radish Chapter" incident of Guohai Securities has caused the market to worry about the tightening of funds; The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission made a speech saying that the supervision of the futures market needs to be strengthened; The RMB exchange rate breaking seven has proved to be a big oolong, but to a certain extent, it reflects the panic of the market
.
Abroad, the latest non-farm payrolls data did not shake the market's judgment on the Fed's interest rate hike in December, and under the expectation of interest rate hikes, short-term capital hedging and profit taking may be more obvious, and copper prices are under greater pressure
.
After that, the Fed announced a 25 basis point interest rate hike at its December meeting, and is expected to raise interest rates three times next year.
Market: In the first half of the month, because copper prices have just turned down, the decline is still relatively limited, many merchants are still bullish on the late copper price, so the holders are not eager to ship, spot copper premium continues to rise, in addition, the basis of the next month before delivery is also a major factor
affecting the continuous rise of spot copper premium.
After the delivery of the contract of the month, the spot copper premium showed a cliff-like decline, and good copper quickly turned into a discount quotation, mainly because the copper price pullback has become a foregone conclusion, many merchants are eager to complete the year-end results, began to increase shipments, spot copper prices also fell rapidly
.
On the demand side, although copper prices fell in December, they did not stimulate downstream buying
.
On the one hand, due to the tight market capital at the end of the year, merchants have closed their accounts one after another to restrict market demand; On the other hand, many merchants are still bearish on the late copper price, and there is no operation of preparing goods in advance as in previous years, so they are not eager to enter the market
.
These two factors work together to make most merchants only maintain on-demand market entry
.
Overall, although December is the turning point of copper prices from rising to falling, it is also a transitional stage
for the copper market to officially turn into the year-end market.
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