Cyclohexanone prices hit a year-low price

Since November, the price of cyclohexanone has weakened under the drag of negative factors such as the decline in the price of pure benzene and the oversupply of cyclohexanone
.
As of December 15, the reference price of cyclohexanone in East China market was 8700~8800 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 1100~1200 yuan from the beginning of November, a new low
in the year.

"Due to the weakening of cost support, the increase in the export supply of cyclohexanone, and the downstream just need to be purchased, it is expected that the future market of cyclohexanone will continue to fluctuate
downward.
" Longzhong information analyst Han Qinghua and other industry insiders analyzed
.

Raw material pure benzene is bearish in the later stage

Since November, the raw material benzene market has been suppressed by many negative factors, and the price has fluctuated and fallen
.
As of November 29, Sinopec's pure benzene quotation has been lowered for six consecutive times, with a cumulative reduction of 950 yuan to 6500 yuan, and the market fell to 6350 yuan
on the same day.

"Benzene rebounded after the recent decline, but the rebound was not very large, and the spot price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated
at 6000~6500 yuan.
In the later period, the cargo of East China port increased, the port inventory increased, and the overall supply of the pure benzene market continued to grow
.
At the same time, in December, pure benzene produced by the large-scale refining and chemical units of Shenghong Refining (Lianyungang) Co.
, Ltd.
, Fuhai Group Co.
, Ltd.
, PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical Branch and Sinopec Hainan Refining and Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
will be shipped
.
In addition, the monthly import volume of pure benzene in the fourth quarter averaged more than 300,000 tons, which further increased the supply pressure
.
Affected by the epidemic and terminal demand, the downstream has maintained a low load and an abundant supply of pure benzene, so it is bearish on the pure benzene market
.
Zhongyu Information pure benzene analyst Zhai Sai said
.

At present, the market is still worried about the economic and demand outlook, and the bearish sentiment has not improved significantly
.
The decline in crude oil prices was transmitted to the benzene market, which had a certain negative impact
on it.

The supply of commodities exceeds demand

This year's cyclohexanone production capacity is 7.
9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.
51%; The output was 3.
95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.
33%, and the supply was sufficient
throughout the year.
However, due to insufficient downstream demand follow-up, the average annual utilization rate of cyclohexanone production capacity dropped to 60%.

Since mid-November, the overall supply of cyclohexanone market has increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the situation of oversupply has gradually worsened, and the industry mentality is pessimistic
.

"The price of cyclohexanone fell for a month, from the current supply side, the maintenance device has been restarted, the market supply has increased, but the terminal demand is not very good
.
The future market is bearish on the trend of cyclohexanone
.
At the same time, due to the price difference between cyclohexanone and benzene, it is expected that the price of cyclohexanone still has room to fall by several hundred yuan
.
Han Qinghua said
.

With the advent of the "two festivals", the willingness of cyclohexanone downstream enterprises to stock up in advance has increased
.
However, due to the recent decline in the price of cyclohexanone, the current price has not yet reached the buyer's psychological expectations, so the downstream customer pre-holiday stock procurement has not yet started
.

Purchasing demand is not strong

The proportion of caprolactam consumption in cyclohexanone remained basically at 73%.

Under the cost pressure and the low-price trading of downstream PA6 chips, weak spinning demand, and slow procurement of raw materials in polymerization plants, caprolactam trend is weak, and the purchase of cyclohexanone is maintained
.

"Affected by the repeated impact of the epidemic, downstream fibers just need to be purchased, caprolactam prices are not smoothly transmitted downward, and the average annual loss of tons of products reaches 1,400 yuan, becoming the most profitable product in the pure benzene industry chain in 2022, and its capacity utilization rate is also declining
.
" Han Qinghua said
.

"Adipic acid accounts for 25%
of total cyclohexanone consumption.
Affected by the epidemic, it is currently difficult
to ship goods in warehouses.
Coupled with the lack of downstream demand follow-up, after the price of raw material benzene was continuously lowered in November, the price of adipic acid also fell by more than 1,000 yuan to about 9,000 yuan with pure benzene
.
He Shikuan, manager of Tianjin Tinghai Technology Co.
, Ltd.
, which is mainly engaged in adipic acid trade, said
.
In addition, the price war between companies has also exacerbated the decline
of this wave of adipic acid.
According to industry insiders, in order to grab export orders, two companies have successively lowered the quotation
of export orders.
Traders saw that manufacturers lowered prices, weakened mentality, and then lowered shipment prices, which was negative for the cyclohexanone market
.

"Another downstream industrial solvent accounts for 2% of the consumption of cyclohexanone, and the annual consumption of cyclohexanone is only 100,000 tons, and the average to monthly demand is small, and the impact on the market is small
.
" Han Qinghua said
.