Crude oil trading reminder: The rise in panic caused oil prices to fall back to a two-month low, pay attention to the impact of OPEC meeting + EIA data

At the beginning of the Asian market on December 1, U.
S.
crude oil rose slightly, and API data released in the morning showed that falling inventories boosted oil prices, now at $66.
93 / barrel; Oil prices fell below the 70 mark on Tuesday, falling more than 4% to a two-month low of $64.
43 a barrel; As Moderna raised questions about the effectiveness of the new coronavirus vaccine against the new variant of Omicron, it caused panic in financial markets and heightened concerns about oil demand; And the Fed's consideration of accelerating the process of "tapering" large-scale bond purchases has also added some pressure to
oil prices.
Intraday oil price key evening EIA data and OPEC meeting
.

At the beginning of the Asian market on Wednesday (December 1), U.
S.
crude oil rose slightly, and API data released in the morning showed that falling inventories boosted oil prices, now at $66.
93 / barrel; Oil prices fell below the 70 mark on Tuesday, falling more than 4% to a two-month low of $64.
43 a barrel; As Moderna raised questions about the effectiveness of the new coronavirus vaccine against the new variant of Omicron, it caused panic in financial markets and heightened concerns about oil demand; And the Fed's consideration of accelerating the process of "tapering" large-scale bond purchases has also added some pressure to
oil prices.

During the day, the focus is on the US ADP employment in November, EIA data, OECD economic outlook, OPEC meeting; Thursday at 3:00 The Fed releases the Beige Book
on the State of the Economy.

[White House says it hopes OPEC+ meeting will decide to release supply]

The White House hopes OPEC+ members will decide at this week's meeting to release oil supplies to meet demand, saying it is discouraging
to see crude prices fall while gas station gasoline prices don't fall accordingly.

White House spokesman Psaki said at a news conference, "Yes, we are frustrated
.
We're frustrated because you see the price of crude oil go down, but the price of gasoline doesn't, and you don't need to be an economist or an oil market expert to realize that doesn't sound, look or smell right
.
”

She said the White House is in regular contact with OPEC members and wants them to act at policy meetings, and we hope they will release supply to meet market demand
.

[Moderna executives say existing vaccine protection will drop sharply]

Financial markets fell
as Moderna executives reiterated that many mutations of the omicron strain indicated the need to develop a new coronavirus vaccine.
Co-founder Noubar Afeyan said in a television interview, "The number of mutations in this virus is surprising and we have to treat it as a serious threat
.
" ”

The market is already uncertain about the extent of the impact of omicron on the course of the pandemic and the global economy, and the words of Moderna executives have further raised concerns
.
In an interview with the Financial Times, CEO Stephane Bancel predicted that the protective efficacy of existing vaccines would "drop significantly," and he also downplayed expectations
that new vaccines could be ready soon.

Louise Dickson, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy, said: "The threat to oil demand is real, another wave of lockdowns could reduce oil demand by as much as 3 million b/d in the first quarter of 2022, and governments are now prioritizing health and safety over reopening plans, as clear evidence
, from Australia's postponement of the reopening to Japan's ban on foreign tourists.
" ”

[All parties to the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear agreement agreed to give priority to the lifting of sanctions against Iraq]

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister and Chief Negotiator on the Iranian nuclear issue Bagheri said on November 30 that the parties to the Iranian nuclear agreement agreed on the first day of the resumption of talks in Vienna, the Austrian capital, on the 29th to make the lifting of sanctions against Iran a priority in
negotiations.
"Many colleagues" welcomed Iran's view of the need for assurances that the United States would not impose sanctions on Iran again and that the United States would not withdraw from the JCPOA, as it did in 2018,
when Trump took office.
In his statement, the European representative acknowledged that the main reason for the current situation is the withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear agreement, so the United States should take the lead in resuming the implementation of the Iranian nuclear agreement
.

[IEA says oil demand is expected to peak by 2025]

International Energy Agency (IEA) Administrator Fatih Birol told Equinor's autumn conference on Tuesday that if the pledges made during the Glasgow climate talks earlier this month are implemented, global oil demand will peak before 2025 and the energy system will need to "adapt".
In a world where global warming is limited to 1.
5 degrees Celsius; by 2040, half of the world's jet fuel use needs to be sustainable, and the market for the technologies needed for structural adjustment will be larger
than today's oil market.
These include battery production as well as carbon capture and storage
.

[U.
S.
stocks tumbled Powell's hawkish speech strengthened interest rate hike expectations]

U.
S
.
stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of speeding up the completion of bond tapering, and traders also stepped up bets on the pace of interest rate hikes.

Financial markets were volatile on Tuesday, the U.
S.
Treasury yield curve flattened sharply, the difference between 30-year and 5-year yields plummeted, and Powell also told the Senate Banking Committee that it was time to stop using the word "transitory" to describe inflation; The S&P 500 fell nearly 2%, and the Cboe Volatility Index extended its biggest monthly gain since February 2020
.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, said Powell added fuel to the fire and finally admitted that inflation would not disappear as quickly as one would like, and the result could be an accelerated tapering, which made the market worry that the feast was coming to an end
.
”

[U.
S.
consumer confidence falls to nine-month low in November]

U.
S.
consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low in November as accelerating inflation and rising coronavirus cases hit Americans' view
of the economy.

Data released on Tuesday by the Institute of Major World Enterprises showed that consumer confidence fell to 109.
5
in November from 111.
6, which was revised down in October.
Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the World Large Enterprise Institute, said in a statement, "Expectations for the short-term economic outlook rose slightly, but expectations for employment and income prospects fell slightly, and concerns about price increases and concerns about the Delta strain, which were somewhat more concerning, were the main reasons for
the slight decline in consumer confidence.
" In the coming months, both confidence and spending are likely to come under pressure
from higher prices and a possible resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic.
”

The status index fell to its lowest level since April, and the expectations index also fell; Consumer optimism about their finances and job prospects over the next six months has declined
.
The number of people who said they would buy property, cars and large appliances in the next six months also decreased
.

[The Omicron variant of the new coronavirus continues to spread around the world]

Omicron, the first variant of the new coronavirus detected in South Africa, has appeared in places such as the United Kingdom, Spain and Canada, highlighting the difficulty of controlling the spread of the new strain
.
Most infections are spread
across borders by passengers carrying the virus.
For example, Israel claims a confirmed case came from Malawi by bus
from Tel Aviv.
The first case in Italy was already across the country
in days before it tested positive.

Researchers around the world are scrambling to figure out all the effects of the fresh strain, and many governments have banned visitors from South Africa and neighboring countries, fearing that Omicron may escape vaccine protection and cause a new outbreak
.

[U.
S.
crude inventories fell 747,000 barrels last week]

Morning data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.
S.
crude inventories fell last week and gasoline and distillate inventories rose
.

Crude inventories fell by 747,000 barrels
in the week ended Nov.
26.
Gasoline inventories rose by 2.
2 million barrels and distillate inventories by 789,000 barrels, the data showed, and analysts' average expectation was a 1.
2 million barrel
decline in crude inventories last week.

Overall, the spread of the variant virus Omicron in various countries and the unoptimistic news about vaccines have increased worries, and the Iranian nuclear negotiations are optimistic, and oil price bears are strong; Under the influence of the two important fundamentals of the intraday oil price key evening EIA data and OPEC meeting, oil prices may have further downside risks
.

At 8:05 Beijing time, U.
S.
crude oil is now trading at $66.
97 a barrel
.