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Crude oil: continued weakness during the day, but not suitable for short chasing

 Last Update: 2023-01-04
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Overall, the mismatch of the replenishment cycle of the short-term crude oil market at home and abroad is the main reason why oil prices have failed to break through upward and maintain a wide range of shocks in the fourth quarter, and we were too optimistic
about the interpretation of domestic demand in the fourth quarter.
In the absence of a hard landing in the overseas economy in the fourth quarter, our view remains unchanged from the crude oil semi-annual report released on June 26 "Mining Deterministic Arbitrage Opportunities in the Reshaped Oil Transportation Pattern--- Crude Oil Futures Market and Investment Outlook in the Second Half of 2022", that is, the probability of the trend of "falling in the third quarter and rebounding in the fourth quarter" is relatively greater
.
However, after the demand in the Asia-Pacific region was lower than expected, the recovery of the center of gravity of oil prices in the fourth quarter may be lower than previously expected, and the pace of rebound was delayed, and we revised down the judgment of the recovery of the center of gravity of the two oil in the fourth quarter from $100 / barrel to $95 / barrel
.

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