Crude oil closes: demand outlook offsets OPEC production cut expectations Crude oil closed slightly lower

News on September 30, concerns about the outlook for energy demand partially offset the impact of possible OPEC+ production cuts, and crude oil futures closed slightly lower
.

West Texas Intermediate crude November futures fell 92 cents, or 1.
1 percent, to settle at $81.
23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up nearly 4.
7 percent
on Wednesday.
ICE Futures Europe Brent crude oil futures for December fell $0.
87, or 1%,
to $87.
18 a barrel.
The November Brent front-month contract, which expires at Friday's close, fell 83 cents, or 0.
9 percent
, to $88.
49 a barrel.

Back on the New York Mercantile Exchange, October gasoline fell 2.
7 percent to $2.
5076 a gallon and October heating oil fell 1 percent to $3.
4146 a gallon, with both October contracts expiring
on Friday.
Natural gas prices fell 1.
2 percent to $
6.
874 per million British heat in November.

Oil prices maintained their upward momentum this week, rebounding
from eight-month lows.
The dollar's rally eased after the dollar index rose to a 20-year high, and traders turned their attention to the prospect
of possible production cuts by OPEC (OPEC+), which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies.

But analysts said the tone for crude remained weak and that concerns about a sharp tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks would weigh on the global economy outweighed concerns about the Russia-Ukraine war and other supply concerns
.

Michael Tran, commodities analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note: "The lack of disruption risk premium suggests that the market is more worried about Fed Chairman Jerome Powell than [Russian President] Vladimir? Vladimir Putin's behavior escalation or OPEC's ability to
defend the market.
”

A North Atlantic Treaty Organization statement said all "currently available information" indicated that damage to Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which led to a series of leaks, was the result of
"deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts of sabotage.
" NATO did not confirm the identity of the
attackers.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ members have reportedly discussed potential production cuts ahead of next week's meeting
.
The report said Russia may recommend cutting production by up to 1 million barrels
per day.
But Tran said OPEC+ faced a dilemma after Saudi Arabia complained about a weak futures market and tight
supplies in the spot market.

Earlier this month, the group symbolically cut production
by 100,000 barrels per day.
A sharper rate cut in the short term would mean a concession that physical demand is worse
than initially estimated.
If there are too few cuts, the market will be dismissive
.
"That's catch-twenty-two
.
"

Crude oil prices were also supported by Hurricane Ian, which made landfall in Florida on Wednesday with a magnitude 4
intensity.
The U.
S.
Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement estimated Wednesday afternoon that about 9.
12 percent of the current oil production and 5.
95 percent of natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico have been shut down
.

U.
S
.
natural gas futures moved sharply lower on Thursday, on track to give up all or even some of Wednesday's 2.
9 percent gains.
The U.
S.
Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that domestic natural gas supplies increased by 103 billion cubic feet
in the week ended Sept.
23.
By comparison, according to a survey by S&P Global Commodities Research, the average analyst expects an increase of 93 billion cubic feet
.

Matt Parry, director of long-term research at Energy Aspects, said he remains "optimistic" that oil prices will return above
$100 in the fourth quarter.

"The fundamentals are still tight, but now everyone is watching the macro picture," he said
.
"Since the end of the year, oil fundamentals have been bullish and the spot market is already reflecting this
.
" Once the depletion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is over, commercial inventories will be "substantially reduced
.
" The price movement of spreads this year clearly shows that even if commercial inventories fail to absorb, inventories remain low, Parry said
.