Crazy! TDI soars 80%! Chemical raw materials set off a "rising tide"

According to the monitoring data of chemical commodity prices of the trading company, after the National Day, the TDI price rose from 20,075 yuan / ton after the holiday to 27,166.
67 on October 18, an increase of more than 35%
in a month.
In addition, from 15,000 yuan / ton in early August, TDI's current round of rise cycle has been close to 80 days, and the increase has reached a staggering 80%, updating a new high
in the past four years.

The reason is mainly that in the context of global energy shortage, European chemical production capacity is relatively limited, and the economic benefits of TDI production are more sensitive
to changes in energy costs.
High natural gas prices forced the shutdown of production in Europe (more than 1 year dimension), combined with the maintenance of most TDI units in October (1 month dimension), making the short-term supply shortage of TDI reach a record high
.

At the beginning of August, Covestro announced that the 300,000 tons/year TDI plant in Germany had force majeure due to chlorine leakage, and supply
was expected to resume after November 30.
Before that, in February this year, BASF's 300,000 mt/year TDI production capacity in Ludwigshafen, Germany, was shut down due to force majeure and has not been restarted
.

On September 26, an explosion occurred at the location of the "Nord Stream" natural gas pipeline, and the market generally expected that the European natural gas supply problem would be difficult to alleviate in the short term, when the restart of the European TDI plant would become more difficult, and the supply gap may exist
for a long time.

On October 10, Wanhua Chemical announced that its 300,000 tons/year TDI plant in Yantai will be stopped for maintenance on October 11 and is expected to be overhauled for about
45 days.

At the same time, due to the epidemic in Xinjiang, Xinjiang Juli TDI logistics is slow and the delivery period is greatly extended
.

In addition, the 150,000 tons/year TDI plant that Gansu Yinguang originally planned to restart at the end of November was affected by the epidemic in the Baiyin area of Gansu Province, and the project progress was affected, or the restart time
will be extended.

And that's just the news that the supply side is tight, and there are still a batch on the way: Hanwha Korea's 150,000 tons/year TDI plant will be overhauled on October 24; BASF's 200,000 mt/year TDI plant will be overhauled at the end of October; Shanghai Covestro's 310,000 tons/year TDI plant is expected
to be maintained in November.

TDI belongs to the middle and upper reaches of the polyurethane industry chain, the main application field is sponge and its products, the terminal products are sofas, mattresses, car seats, etc.
, domestic demand support is strong, external demand is growing rapidly, and the global TDI production capacity growth rate is slow
in recent years.
On the other hand, due to the soaring cost of energy and raw materials in Europe, the low operating rate of local TDI factories, and the trend of tight prices, the market price has also soared rapidly, and under the current situation, it is difficult to restart TDI production capacity in Europe next year, and it is expected that TDI prices still have room to
rise in the future.

At present, the winter situation in Europe is becoming more and more serious
.
The emergence of new variants when everyone is anxious about energy problems has made the situation worse, coupled with the impact of energy problems, Europe has begun to reduce production and maintenance, and the supply of many chemical raw materials has begun to be in short supply, and in addition to the sharp rise in TDI prices, other chemical raw materials have also set off a "rising tide"!

MDI: Europe is 3,000 yuan / ton higher than the domestic one, and Wanhua and Dow have increased

European MDI accounts for 27% of global production capacity, and the tight supply of natural gas in Europe and the United States under the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly increased the cost
of MDI production.
Recently, the MDI in Europe is about
3,000 yuan per ton higher than China's MDI.

With the requirements for winter heating, part of MDI demand will be released in October; Abroad, the recent overseas energy crisis is still relatively prominent, which is good for MDI prices
.
Dow Europe may increase the price of MDI, polyether and composite products in the European market from September 1, with an increase of 200 euros / ton (about 1368 yuan / ton).

Since October, Wanhua Chemical has raised the polymerized MDI in China by 2,300 yuan / ton and pure MDI by 2,000 yuan / ton
.

Propylene oxide: the operating rate is as low as 60%, and it has risen by more than 4,000 yuan / ton in the second half of the year

Europe's propylene oxide production capacity accounts for 25% of the world's total, and many plants in Europe have announced production
cuts.
At the same time, the operating rate of domestic propylene oxide has also declined, reaching 65.
83%, which is the low point in recent years, and the operating rate is about
20% lower than the normalized operating rate.
Many large enterprises began to stop for maintenance, reducing the supply of
products.

Many large chemical enterprises have propylene oxide supporting downstream, products are mainly self-use, not much export, so the market circulation spot is tight, product prices have recovered
significantly since September.
The price of propylene oxide rose from 8,000 yuan / ton in early August to about 10,260 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 30%, and the cumulative increase in the second half of the year exceeded 4,000 yuan / ton
.

Titanium dioxide: the total load was reduced to 20%, and the price of high-end products increased by 2000 yuan / ton

European titanium dioxide production capacity accounts for about 18% of the world, at present, many titanium dioxide companies in Europe have stopped production and reduced production, and the production capacity has been reduced to 20% of the total load, and the supply is relatively tight
.
The impact of the European energy crisis on the domestic titanium dioxide industry will be seen in the fourth quarter, including the rise in product prices and shortages
.

In terms of domestic conditions, the price of high-end chlorinated titanium dioxide is also rising
.
CITIC Titanium and Tianyuan have successively issued letters announcing that the domestic price of chlorination products will be increased by 800-2000 yuan / ton, and the foreign price will be increased by about
100-150 US dollars / ton.
Some companies have begun to stop production and clear inventory, the price decline space is very limited, and the expectation of increase is increasing
.

Acrylic acid: the price of upstream raw materials has increased, and the product has increased by 200-300 yuan / ton

European acrylic acid production capacity accounts for 16% of the world, and the escalation of international geopolitical conflicts has caused crude oil to run at a high level, raw material propylene prices to rise, and cost support to strengthen
.
After the superimposed festival, users have returned to the market one after another, and under multiple factors, the acrylic acid market has risen
steadily.

The market price of acrylic acid in East China is 7900-8100 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton
from the end of September.
The ex-factory price of acrylic acid and esters of Shanghai Huayi, Yangba Petrochemical and Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical was increased by 200-300 yuan / ton
.
After the holiday, the price of raw material propylene market increased, the cost side support was strengthened, the load of some devices was limited, and the downstream buying follow-up was more active, and the center of gravity of the acrylic acid market rose
.