Cost support strengthened, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply

Market focus: (1) The preliminary Markit services PMI in the United States recorded 39.
1 in March, less than the expected 42, and 49.
3 last month; the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in March was 49.
2, less than the expected 42.
8, and 50.
7
last month.
(2) From January to February 2020, China imported 181575 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year-on-year increase of 114.
5%; Exports were 669208 tons, down 25.
3%
year-on-year.

Spot analysis: On March 25, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 11310-11350 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11330 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 110 yuan / ton
.
The overall shipment of the holder during the day was more active, because the receipt price of a large household was not ideal, the market supply was loose, the willingness of the holder to ship did not converge with the aluminum price in the later stage, and the transaction between the middleman and the buyer was acceptable
.
Downstream intraday on-demand delivery is the mainstay, normal delivery
.
The overall intraday transaction in East China is average
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 294013 tons on Tuesday, an increase of 6,307 tons per day; On March 23, LME aluminum stocks were 1076050 tons, an increase of 6,125 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2005 contract were 88449 lots, minus 3198 lots per day, short positions were 98622 lots, daily minus 1124 lots, net short positions were 10173 lots, daily increase of 2074 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space increased
.

The main force of Shanghai aluminum rose sharply in 2005
.
The epidemic in Europe and the United States continues to spread, the manufacturing industry has been impacted, the shutdown of enterprises has increased, and the outlook for downstream demand is worrying; At the same time, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continues to be released, and global aluminum explicit inventory shows a growth trend, which puts greater pressure on aluminum prices
.
However, the Fed's unlimited QE became the most aggressive intervention to date; And upstream alumina inventories continue to decline, price performance resisted, the current aluminum price fell below the cost line, cost support strengthened, aluminum price below the space is limited
.
In terms of spot, the overall shipment of the holder within the day is more active, because the receipt price of a large household is not ideal, the market supply is loose, the willingness of the holder to ship has not converged with the aluminum price in the later stage, and the transaction between the middleman and the buyer is acceptable
.
Technically, the main 2005 contract daily KDJ indicator golden cross, mainstream positions increase and reduce short, and short-term volatility is expected to be strong
.