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Today's Shanghai copper showed a trend of rushing higher and falling, with the main contract closing at 49740 points, up 0.
61%.
On the plate, the trend of London copper is strong, driving Shanghai copper to test the 50,000 points pressure level at midday, and there will be a slight decline after the upward obstruction, Shanghai copper runs above 4.
9; and as the progress of Brexit accelerates, the dollar continues to weaken, which is positive for copper prices
.
It is expected to maintain high volatility in the near future, focusing on whether it can stand at the 50,000-point mark
.
In terms of inventory, on the 20th, LME inventories fell again, and continued to attract the decline
in LME inventories due to the large premium in China's surrounding markets.
The previous warehouse receipts fell slightly on the 20th, and the current spot market premium pattern is maintained, which is still very attractive to futures warehouse receipts, but the total number of warehouse receipts has been low, so the recent warehouse receipts have not changed much
.
In terms of news, global miner BHP Billiton said on Thursday that it had partially closed
its Spence copper mine in Chile after a fire.
The company said there were no casualties
in the fire.
A company spokesperson said: "The place where the fire broke out immediately stopped operations and we need to ensure the safety
of workers.
" "The mine produced 198,600 tonnes
of copper in 2017.
In terms of smelting, the Zhangjiagang smelting enterprise that previously suspended production has begun to resume production, with a production capacity of 200,000 tons
.
In the medium term, the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in the next 5 years is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, while the refining capacity is more available, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make the copper price fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.
Short-term logic, before China's new smelting capacity is not put into place, the spot market is still tight, import profits stimulate refined copper imports, but the decline in foreign inventories accelerated, therefore, the short-term copper market continues to be supported by spot, but due to the smelting capacity is expected to be more concentrated, coupled with the possible restart of Indian smelters, copper prices are difficult to perform too well, short-term market term pattern still has not been reversed, it is estimated that it can continue to October, November
.
On the whole, from the supply side, the pressure is mainly concentrated from the end of 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, and from the current production capacity, the production time may be more concentrated
.
However, the short-term supply elasticity is not high, coupled with the scarcity of surrounding available inventory, the 1810 contract term structure continues to continue, but the current refined waste price spread has been reopened, and the urgency of downstream demand is not high, coupled with the resumption of production of some smelters, the overall limit of copper price strength, however, the overall pattern of copper market near and far weak has not changed
.
