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This week's macro sentiment is uncertain, the trend of Shanghai copper ups and downs, the road to copper price rebound is bumpy, spot trading performance is weak, but the domestic favorable policies are concentrated release, personal mortgage interest rates are then "interest rate cut", superimposed on the improvement of the epidemic, new energy vehicle consumption is expected to be good, boosting market recovery expectations, copper prices will remain high volatility
.
In terms of spot, the supply of spot circulating goods is tight, the premium continues to remain high, the sentiment of holders to support prices continues, the sentiment of receiving goods by receivers is not high, they are still cautious and afraid of heights, and the consumption performance is calm
.
On the supply side, the interference rate of overseas mines has increased, the Peruvian copper mine protest strike has continued to disrupt, and some copper mines have been forced to close, causing copper supply concerns; However, the domestic copper concentrate processing fee TC continued to fall, falling to 79.
28 US dollars / ton, copper production repair is expected to increase, and Hubei and Shandong new investment and resumption of production are operating steadily; With the easing of the epidemic in East China, logistics and transportation have been smoothed, the marginal outbound volume in Shanghai has rebounded, and the import window has opened, imported copper has begun to flow in, and the expected marginal supply has eased
.
On the demand side, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has gradually improved, the number of new people has dropped to three digits, the resumption of production and work has gradually started, the demand side is expected to be repaired in stages, and the state has vigorously supported new infrastructure construction, photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, new energy vehicles and supporting fields, which has strengthened the demand and expectation for copper
.
However, the overall consumption situation still does not show the characteristics of the peak season, and it is still necessary to be vigilant against the danger of the rebound of
the epidemic.
In terms of inventories, Shanghai copper inventories fell slightly this week compared with last week, with a cumulative decrease of 936 tons to 554436 tons, down 1.
69%
from last week.
London copper stocks fell slightly this week, down 1,950 tonnes to 174,600 tonnes, a cumulative decline of 1.
10%.
Due to the poor economic data in the United States, the market began to worry that continuous interest rate hikes may trigger a recession, and the expectation of interest rate hikes has declined, and the dollar index has begun to decline, driving the non-ferrous sector to rise
.
Coupled with the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic, boosting the confidence of terminal enterprises to resume production and work, and the recent internal and external inventories began to fall slightly, copper price support strengthened, prices also rebounded, overall, this week's macro atmosphere dominated, cloudy and uncertain, making the road to Shanghai copper rebound bumpy
.
Copper prices are expected to remain range-bound
next week.
