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After the rise in copper prices overnight and the announcement of the production cut of European zinc smelters, the market was worried about metal supply problems, and base metals resonated up
.
In terms of copper, the LME write-off warehouse receipt is as high as 160,000 tons, accounting for 92.
2%, and in the context of low inventory, LME copper inventory continues to squeeze.
On a macro front, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that tapering of asset purchases could begin as early as November and be completed
by mid-2022.
At present, the market's expectation of a tightening of liquidity in the previous period has been largely digested
.
Fundamentally, the dual control policy of energy consumption affects domestic supply, two smelters in Guangxi, Jiangsu Zhangjiagang United Copper, Anhui Tongling and other smelters have reduced production, monthly output reduction in about 3-40,000 tons, September imported copper is still not much, after October imported copper may increase by about 3-40,000 tons, overall supply is still not very loose
.
The global copper concentrate supply situation continues to improve, and the focus of the supply side has shifted from copper concentrate tension to cold material and electrolytic copper tension
.
From the perspective of domestic copper stocks, power cuts interfere with supply, short-term inventories are difficult to grow significantly, copper prices have received some support, however, the successive release of national reserves will limit the upside
of copper prices.
In general, it is expected that Shanghai copper will be dominated by oscillating rebound in the near future, and the upper pressure level is 76800 yuan / ton
.
