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Base metals fell streaked last week, after which bulls were encouraged by a sharp pullback in the dollar and a strike at the Cerro Verde copper mine, and copper prices rallied back
.
Friday collective rebound, London copper closed at $5730, temporarily stopped falling, Shanghai copper first fell and then rose, the lower band of Bollinger Road was supported, the downside space was limited, and later relied on the 20-week line shock, or technical counter-pump.
On the macro front, commodity markets fell across the board last week, approaching the Fed's March interest rate meeting, and good economic data led the market to believe that the March rate hike was a certainty, and funds turned short
.
The US non-farm payrolls data on Friday continued to be positive, and if the interest rate meeting this week raises interest rates, the market may turn to the judgment of the pace of interest rate hikes, bearish or phased release
.
Last week, China's data was also positive, with central bank data showing that new RMB loans in February were 1.
17 trillion yuan, and new loans in the first two months were basically the same as the same period last year, social financing fell, and medium and long-term loans to enterprises still accounted for about 50% of total loans, indicating that corporate investment continued
.
Judging from the released PMI, Keqiang Index and other data, the rebound cycle promoted by investment and replenishment is maintained, and it is expected to exert strength
in the peak season of the second quarter.
In the market, London copper fell by 1,800 tons on Friday, ending the previous consecutive surge momentum, but the current Chinese port premium is still below $45, and the momentum of inventory increase is difficult to end
.
Shanghai copper to Thursday spot turned to premium, downstream bargain hunting to increase purchases, and by Friday scrap copper and electric copper price difference narrowed to 5100 yuan, anaerobic rod to low oxygen rod price advantage is large, sales are good, the market is reluctant to sell sentiment is obvious, which reflects that domestic spot has entered the support area
.
However, from the perspective of market structure, the discount of Shanghai copper spot to the main contract, the discount of the internal and external markets has not been effectively narrowed, and the positions of the two markets have not yet grown, and the weakness of the market has not changed
.
Shanghai copper inventories rose by more than 10,000 tonnes last week, focusing on short-term pressures
on delivery.
On the news front, on Friday, the workers and management of Chile's Escondida mine held preliminary talks, but workers still insisted on their conditions, reaching an agreement was difficult, and Peru's largest mine also announced an indefinite strike, and supply disruptions may
expand.
Historically, unless it encounters macro-financial bearishness, peak season prices remain strong overall, looking forward to the second quarter, good economic data indicates that consumption will remain stable, near the peak season prices are expected to rise again, but inventory has increased too much, it takes time to digest, thereby suppressing the upside of prices, the tight set above 48000 will become pressure, pay attention to the support of the platform 45000-46000 in January
.
