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On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1809 oscillated and rebounded, trading at 47780-49170 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 49000 yuan / ton at the end, up 1.
83% per day, the largest daily increase since October 16 last year, but the current copper price is still valid under the moving average group, the technical pattern is bearish
.
In terms of term structure, Shanghai copper maintained a positive arrangement of near, low and far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai copper 1808 contract and 1809 contract remained at 150 yuan / ton
.
In the external market, Asia Lun copper rebounded from the low oscillation, trading range of 6247-6103 US dollars / ton, of which as of 15:58 Beijing time, 3-month London copper was reported at 6198 US dollars / ton, up 1.
03% per day, and the daily closing price was still close to the low level
set on July 25, 2017.
In terms of positions, as of July 9, the position of London copper was 316,000, an increase of 709 lots per day, indicating that after the copper price continued to decline, the long-short divergence increased
.
In terms of the market, on July 12, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 20 yuan / ton - 50 yuan / ton for the monthly contract, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 48370 yuan / ton - 48490 yuan / ton
。 The early interval monthly price spread performance is disordered, between 100-160 yuan / ton rapid and frequent fluctuations, so there have been some holders to the 1808 contract quotation discount 140-80 yuan / ton, but due to the sharp fluctuations, still to the current month contract transaction mainly, generally flat water copper discount 20 yuan / ton - flat water good copper premium 20 yuan / ton transaction is more common, the spread expands to 150-160 yuan / ton, the month can be elevated to 50-60 yuan / ton, but at this time the point price is less
.
Most of the intraday market transactions are traders choose the opportunity to bargain and replenish, although there is replenishment downstream, but due to the large performance of quotation differences, it makes them stop.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index oscillated slightly, basically maintaining the large increase recorded overnight, and is now trading around 94.
67, as the US PPI in June rose more than expected, raising expectations of four interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year
.
But the U.
S.
Senate voted 88-11 overwhelmingly to pass a resolution restricting Trump's tariff authority, raising questions about whether the U.
S.
decision to impose tariffs on China can be implemented
.
On the industry front, Canada's Barrick Gold lowered its full-year 2018 copper production forecast to 345-410 million pounds (about 1.
5649 million tons to 1.
86 million tons), down from 385-450 million pounds expected in April, as plant closures and lower ore taste hurt Lumwana's first-quarter performance
.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1809 contract rebounded strongly to 49,000 yuan / ton, as US President Trump's tariff powers are expected to be limited, which has reduced concerns about further escalation of the Sino-US trade war, while copper prices faced over-fall rebound demand
after continuing to fall.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1809 contract can be sold high and low between 48600-49600 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 450 yuan / ton
each.
