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Copper prices rebounded from lows on Thursday, but the overall trading center of gravity fell
from the previous session.
Shanghai copper fell into a narrow range after rising in early trading, repairing most of the nighttime decline, recording a decline of 0.
1%; The overall performance of the outer metal was better than the internal market, and Lun copper turned the previous decline and rose strongly, rising more than 2%.
On the macro front, the Fed officially announced that it would accelerate Taper and double its bond purchases every month, suggesting three interest rate hikes next year; Powell: High inflation has forced the Fed to accelerate Taper, the path of interest rate hikes is not clear, and the economy is moving
rapidly towards maximizing employment.
U.
S.
retail sales grew 0.
3% month-on-month in November, the lowest
since July.
The spread of Omicron accelerated, and the number of confirmed new crown cases in the United Kingdom and South Africa reached record highs
in a single day.
In terms of fundamentals, the upstream copper mine imports increased significantly in the fourth quarter, and copper mine inventories continued to increase, but the tight supply of cold materials still existed, coupled with the sharp decline in sulfuric acid prices, refinery production faced certain pressure, and there was no rush to production at the end of the year, and output increased
slightly.
In November, the domestic power rationing policy was relaxed, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises rebounded significantly, but near the end of the year-end demand off-season, downstream procurement willingness is low, and the sensitivity to copper price increases is high, mostly based on bargain hunting
.
Recently, domestic and foreign inventories have maintained a trend of decomposition, inventories have been at a historical low, and the market has shown a tight supply situation
.
In terms of stocks, the LME weekly accumulation was 3,425 tonnes to 81,775 tonnes, and the weekly destocking of SHFE was 1,058 tonnes to 6,331 tonnes
.
The weekly accumulation of social treasury is 07,400 tons to 90,100 tons, and the weekly destocking of bonded areas is 08,300 tons to 175,200 tons
.
In terms of imports, from the comparison point of view, this week's import loss on the 01 contract remained at about 300 yuan / ton, while the spot import profit window is open, superimposed on the external back structure has narrowed significantly, and a small amount of demand is concentrated on
warehouse receipts and recent bills of lading.
However, near the end of the year, many traders said that the annual trade indicators have been achieved, and they have recently been busy with year-end liquidation, and their willingness to participate in spot trade has weakened
significantly.
Moreover, the problem of shipping delays has continued to appear recently, which has also inhibited the enthusiasm of
spot trading.
Overall, overseas macro uncertainty has increased
.
The Federal Reserve's official announcement of accelerating Taper as scheduled, the US dollar index maintaining stability at a high level, and the accelerated spread of Omicron and the existence of risk aversion have all put pressure
on base metals.
At present, multiple factors are intricate, and copper prices still maintain a volatile pattern
for the time being.