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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1607 contract oscillated and rebounded, closing at 35610 yuan / ton at the end of the day, up 0.
37% from yesterday's closing price, up 1.
65% from the low of 35030 yuan / ton in this round of correction, but at present, Shanghai copper is still running under the main moving average group, and the short-term copper price decline risk has not been fully released
.
Externally, Asia Lun copper rebounded weakly, of which the 3-month LME copper rose 0.
31% to $4635 / ton at the close of Shanghai copper, and the current London copper is still running below the moving average group, indicating heavier selling pressure above, its performance is slightly weaker than Shanghai copper, and the daily closing price is close to the low set on April 11 of the year
.
Macro: U.
S.
retail sales rose 1.
3% m/m in April, significantly higher than market expectations of 0.
8%, which strongly boosted the prospects of the U.
S.
economic recovery in the second quarter, causing the dollar index to rebound strongly to around 94.
6, and the Asian dollar index basically maintained Friday's gains on Monday, continuing to trade around
94.
5.
In addition, China's industrial added value and fixed asset investment growth rate in April released over the weekend were empty
as expected.
In terms of market: Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of flat water copper was 35260-35400 yuan / ton
.
On the last trading day before delivery, the overnight basis of Shanghai copper remained at about 150 yuan / ton, and the contract of the month maintained the delivery level quotation, and the flat water copper reported a discount of 90 yuan / ton - a discount of 70 yuan / ton
.
Due to the recovery of the ratio, the recent increase in imported copper customs declarations, the proportion of imported copper in the domestic market in the future market is expected to remain at a high level, superimposed on delivery factors, and the subsequent supply will remain sufficient, so that traders expect the discount to expand
all the way.
Intermediaries and downstream wait for the change of month after the price discount
.
The overall oversupply of the market is obvious, and the transaction shows pre-delivery characteristics
.
Overall, the intraday Shanghai copper 1607 oscillation rose slightly to 35610 yuan / ton, but the rebound was weak, and still ran below the moving average group, indicating that the upper selling pressure was heavier, weighed down by global economic growth concerns and the strengthening of the US dollar index
.
It is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1607 contract can still hold short orders cautiously below 36,300 yuan, and the target is 35,100 yuan / ton
.
