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During China's November holiday, under the superposition of many factors such as Trump's infection with the new crown shaking the election prospects, the US fiscal stimulus policy is unresolved, and geopolitical problems continue to intensify, the international stock market and commodities set off a frenzy, and the external metal first fell and then rose
.
As of Thursday's close, the outer copper price closed at $6669.
5 / ton, roughly unchanged
from before the holiday.
Entering October, the high volatility of asset prices in the global financial market has further intensified, market risk appetite has swayed with the new crown epidemic, economic stimulus measures and the Politburo situation, financial markets, especially stocks and commodities, systemic risks are greater, and the continued rebound may be more hoped for the improvement of the new crown epidemic and the introduction of a new round of economic stimulus measures as soon as possible
.
October is the traditional demand season, air conditioning, automobile consumption is expected to improve, but the largest proportion of cable demand performance is not good, beware of the peak season is not busy
.
The Fed's September interest rate meeting kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, expecting interest rates to remain unchanged until the end of 2023, and raised its GDP growth forecast, leaving the easing environment unchanged, but a new round of stimulus has not yet arrived
.
Recently, with the sharp rebound of the US dollar index and the increase in fears of the return of the epidemic in Europe, the volatility of US stocks has increased, and market sentiment is very easy to turn pessimistic
.
The mine end has not changed much, domestic smelter maintenance has decreased, and refined copper output has increased
steadily.
The macro environment is slightly bearish, the volatility of US stocks has increased significantly, and the US dollar index has risen to a nearly two-month high
.
According to news, two copper mines in Chile have a labor dispute, including the world's largest copper mine EScondida, which is currently in the mediation stage, which is expected to have some support
for copper prices.
Chile's Candelaria Miners' Union rejected the proposal, raising the risk of strike
.
Copper prices were suppressed by a sharp increase in LME copper stocks before the holiday, and mid-holiday inventories fell
slightly.
In the week of September 29, COMEX1 copper speculative long positions were reduced by more than 9,000, changing the trend of stable growth in the previous period, while short positions increased steadily, and the willingness of funds to be bullish was not strong
.
Overall, with the rebound of copper prices in the external market, Shanghai copper may make up for the rise, but the recent market volatility is large, and it is not advisable to be overly optimistic
.
