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After a slight adjustment in copper prices last week, copper prices rose sharply to the highest level since March, and as of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2205 contract of Shanghai copper was reported at 74970 points, a weekly increase of 1.
64% or 1210 yuan
.
On the macro front, the US CPI core inflation data in March was less than expected, and the market predicted that the pace of Fed interest rate hikes would slow down, with a probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in May of 91%; Copper prices fell on Monday or indicate that the market has digested the bearish
interest rate hike.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is deadlocked, and there is little hope of peace through negotiations
.
The EU banned the import of Russian crude oil in stages, and international oil prices hit a two-week high
.
Short-term energy prices are affected by the shortage of fundamental supply, and it is difficult for energy prices to fall
.
Commodity inflation is still likely to continue, supporting subsequent copper prices
.
In terms of the market, spot copper rose by 1610 yuan during the week, the epidemic in Shanghai continued to be closed, the external transportation of electrolytic copper was basically stopped, the surrounding areas, especially Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the downstream was forced to find local sources, and the premium was difficult to be significantly reduced, and affected by the monthly price difference, it will remain at a high premium next week
.
It is understood that due to the sustainability of export profits, the export enthusiasm of domestic electrolytic copper manufacturers has increased, accelerating the rhythm
of domestic destocking.
In terms of import profit and loss, the US dollar index continued to reach a new high this week, and the volatility of import losses continued to narrow, and the gap is only around
100 yuan / ton.
Although the domestic epidemic situation has not improved, the policy has relaxed the control of logistics, and the domestic RRR reduction signal is frequent, the market is looking forward to subsequent copper demand, and the low global copper inventory has brought upward momentum to copper prices
.
Technically, copper prices broke through sharply, but there was no substantial fundamental support, or there was hype, and the LME was closed from
Friday to next Monday.
It is expected that the price of Shanghai copper may fall back with technical
adjustments.
Caution
is required.
