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Copper prices strengthened sharply last week when the dollar index weakened on Friday, and the current loose monetary policy tone in the United States may continue to put pressure on the dollar, which will be a more favorable factor
for copper prices, especially external copper prices.
In terms of spot, near the end of the month, the market shipment cash exchange operation is basically completed, but the market activity is still low
.
During the week, due to the arrival of import sources, the inventory performance rebounded sharply, but next week is about to enter September, spot quotations may return to a slight premium, but the transaction market conditions are difficult to improve
in the short term.
Last week, the Fed's FOMC announced the unanimous adoption of an update on the "Long-Term Objectives and Monetary Policy Strategy Statement", clarifying its stance on monetary policy to achieve the target of average inflation of 2% over a period of time, with higher inflation to offset a period of less than 2% inflation "for a period
of time".
This is actually a reconfirmation that the Fed will continue to maintain low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, the dollar fell sharply on Friday, and the price of copper on the outside showed a significantly stronger pattern than the internal market, and this situation may be difficult to change
in the short term.
However, as domestic consumption is also expected to improve in the coming September, the outlook for copper prices is still relatively promising
.
In the medium term, on the macro side, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor
for commodities.
In terms of fundamentals, at present, because major producers such as Chile are still seriously affected by the epidemic, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year, but on the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Previously, State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 408 billion yuan, but as of the first half of the data, the actual investment amount of the power grid was only about a quarter completed, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work in the second half of the year.
It should be noted that at present, copper prices showing a strong trend may stimulate the acceleration of new production capacity or even exceed expectations, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side
.
