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Copper prices rebounded all the way last week, and as of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2210 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 63070, a weekly increase of 5.
93% or 3530 yuan
.
Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, most varieties of non-ferrous metals rebounded sharply, mainly driven
by the recent weakening of macro bearish and strong metal fundamentals.
On the macro front, on the one hand, the European Central Bank's willingness to raise interest rates and control inflation is more resolute, which makes the US dollar index soar and fall back to adjust; On the other hand, the latest release of China's August CPI and PPI growth both retreated, bringing room for domestic credit easing and stimulus measures, further boosting the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption expectations
.
In addition, the disturbance of overseas geopolitical situation and energy crisis on the supply side of non-ferrous metals continues to exist, and after the macro pressure is eased, the upward fluctuation elasticity of non-ferrous prices is strong
.
At present, the main source of support for copper prices is that the fundamentals are too strong, mainly reflected in the continuous dematerialization
of inventories.
Data show that as of September 5, the world's three major exchanges superimposed copper stocks in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone were only 268,000 tons, down 287,000 tons from May, and the amount of inventory dematerialization since August alone reached 100,000 tons
.
In the context of continuous de-stocking, copper spot premiums have also ushered in a high level
.
The domestic spot premium has long returned to the high level of 400 yuan / ton, the highest reaching 640 yuan / ton, and the LME spot has also changed from the discount state before mid-August to the premium state, and has gone all the way up, has reached the peak level
of the normal state.
In addition, the continuous fermentation of overseas energy crises has driven up energy costs and boosted commodity prices
in the short term.
Statistics show that Europe, excluding Russia, accounts for 12% of the world's annual refined copper production and 11% of the world's demand, which is a relatively balanced region
.
However, the impact of energy problems on supply is direct, but the suppression of demand is an indirect way to affect economic growth, and the former will inevitably respond more quickly, so if the European energy crisis continues to ferment, the first step will be affected by supply, which will also boost copper prices
in a short time.
Overall, the view on the current copper price remains unchanged, and there is still a huge risk
of betting on a copper price rebound in the context of a bear market.
