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On Wednesday, copper prices fell sharply and fluctuated in a narrow range at low levels, with the Shanghai copper August contract closing down 610 yuan at 35,230 yuan
.
On the whole, the long and short pre-holiday is more cautious, more short-term operation, Shanghai copper entered the consolidation stage, after the festival waiting for further guidance
from London copper.
On the macro front, weak U.
S.
employment data cooled expectations for a Fed rate hike sharply, and Yellen said on Tuesday that further gradual rate hikes would be appropriate, but the market believes that the earliest rate hike will be in September, and the dollar exchange rate fluctuates
in a narrow range.
China's foreign exchange reserves fell by $27.
9 billion on Tuesday to its lowest level since the end of 2011, which has a lot to do with expectations of a stronger dollar in the United States, which China said fluctuated in both directions and would remain stable
in the future.
China's influence on the global economy is increasing, and the balance of global policies reduces risks
.
In terms of news, China's imports fell by 0.
4% year-on-year in May, and the decline in exports expanded to 4.
1%, of which China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in May were 430,000 tons, unchanged year-on-year, far lower than the 22.
6% increase in the previous four months
.
Not only is the decrease in Chinese imports related to the closing of the import window, but also the bonded zone inventory increased by 100,000 tons
in May.
The result of China's import blockage has recently been reflected in the LME, which has increased by more than 40,000 tons in the past two days, which is reported to be related to Chinese exports, and there is also news that this is related to the transfer of copper shipped to China to other LME warehouses, in short, the role of China's high inventory and reduced imports has finally been reflected in the market, which has become the most important driving force
for the current downward trend in copper prices.
In terms of the market, the domestic spot premium rose by 5 yuan to 100-160 yuan, and the holders hurried to clear their warehouses before the holiday to exchange cash for hedging, and the market showed a situation of oversupply that had not appeared for a long time, and the characteristics of holidays were obvious
.
In the short term, if copper prices can break the recent low, the future market may still decline to the low point at the beginning of the year
.
