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This week, copper prices first fell and then rose, and the price fluctuated more than 1,000 yuan during the week, falling into a high volatility
.
This week, Shanghai copper first fell and then rose, the fluctuation range of the week exceeded 1,000 yuan, of which the crude oil market suffered a huge impact, Shanghai copper short confidence once suffered a major blow, and then with the recovery of crude oil prices to make up for the rapid decline, compared with last Friday's spot copper rose about 300 yuan
.
Under the spread of the epidemic, the demand side has been hit hard, OPEC production cut agreement of 9.
7 million tons / day is a drop in the bucket, U.
S.
crude oil inventories remain high, oil storage space has become the fuse, WTI crude oil May delivery contract fell negative on Monday, and Tuesday's June contract once plunged 70% to single digits, commodity confidence is weak, copper prices short-term rebound ended, Wednesday fell sharply to test the support
above the 40,000 integer.
Subsequently, the market mentality was repaired, and the rebound in oil prices led to the recovery of copper prices, and the weekly line closed longer and the upper shadow.
The preliminary value of the European and American manufacturing PMI fell more than expected, reflecting that the current soft demand situation still limits the medium-term copper price; The short-term improvement of the epidemic, coupled with the decline in domestic inventories, supports the upward shift of copper prices, or falls into a volatile pattern, waiting for more favorable expectations to drive
.
In terms of the market, although the copper price has enlarged up and down this week, but affected by the strong willingness of holders to raise prices, the premium range has not changed much, and the good copper premium remains around
180-190 yuan.
The market is still cautious about the future market, the overall transaction is not good, when the market plummeted on Tuesday, the quotation was more chaotic, retail investors good copper rose 170-210, the subsequent basically stable around 190, but it is reported that downstream consumption is gradually improving, traders bearish mentality has been repaired
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the window this week continued to expand and has now remained around
300 yuan / ton.
In the short term, the decline rate of domestic refined copper inventory is obvious, the high operating rate of enterprises coupled with the short-term demand boost brought by the production of orders in the past year, the production of overseas copper concentrate is blocked, and the depletion of port inventory has brought concerns about refined copper production, which has boosted copper prices
in the short term.
However, the main demand sectors of refined copper on the power grid, air conditioning and automobile market still show signs of weakness in the medium term, or will lengthen the cycle
.
On the other hand, the reduction of interest rates of domestic enterprises and the blockage of orders in the later period also bring certain tests
to the medium and long-term demand for refined copper.
At present, the copper market still maintains a short and long short idea, the recent shock sorting, short-term copper is still affected by the market confidence formed by crude oil, it is expected that next week Shanghai copper or first rise and then decline, Shanghai copper main range of 4.
08-42,800.
