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Shanghai copper continued to rise sharply during the day yesterday, reaching a maximum of almost 58,000 a line, and in the process, the holders' premium quotations remained firm, and even slightly increased compared with last Friday, which shows that the market is still optimistic
about the future market outlook.
During the night trading session, with the rebound of the US dollar, copper prices fell slightly, and at present, due to the continued high price, the downstream wait-and-see mood is extremely strong, and the spot transaction is
deadlocked.
In terms of macro, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy is still more likely to continue in the future, and this is a very favorable factor for commodities, the current dollar is higher in the short term, but this is more affected by the Eurozone epidemic rebound, and in terms of monetary policy, the Fed does not have the conditions to immediately change the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar rally may not be sustainable
.
In terms of spot, on November 30, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a premium of 150 ~ 180 yuan / ton
for the monthly contract.
The transaction price of flat water copper is 57000 yuan / ton ~ 57640 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of premium copper is 57010 yuan / ton ~ 57660 yuan / ton
.
In terms of spot, the market was hit by the straight rise of the plate, and the market generally waited and watched, and fear of heights spread
.
Coupled with the last trading day at the end of the month, the deal was
deadlocked.
It is expected that in the short term, the market will continue to rise at a high level, and it is difficult to see a significant decline in the price discount, waiting for the last round of the period before the end of the year to rise together
.
In terms of fundamentals, due to the uncertainty of the impact of the epidemic in major producing countries such as Chile in the third quarter, coupled with the recent event that China may ban copper imports from Australia, these are more obvious supply-side disruptions
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Prior to this, State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 460 billion yuan, but as of the first half of the year, the actual investment amount of the power grid is far from reaching the standard, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work after that.
In addition, in the new energy vehicle sector, there is also a certain support for the demand for copper prices
.
