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Last week, Shanghai copper first rose and then declined, with a weekly decline of about
2,000 yuan.
After breaking a new high of 70,000, copper prices fell
sharply last week.
As of 3 p.
m.
on Friday, the main 2104 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 65920, down 2.
99%
for the week.
Affected by inflation acceleration expectations and monetary policy tightening expectations during the week, global long-term government bond yields rose, interest rate changes affected market investment sentiment, and domestic copper consumption in early March has not yet entered the peak season period, copper prices may be mainly driven
by market confidence and capital.
Recently the global stock market has been light, and the volatility of the copper market has intensified, as a single non-ferrous variety has led to a sell-off in the non-ferrous market, further hitting market confidence
.
In terms of fundamentals, the market expects a sharp increase in copper concentrate arrivals in March, downstream consumption has not fully recovered, short-term supply shortage conditions are not sufficient, peak season consumption destocking stage still needs to wait, there is no basis for a sharp rebound in the near future, and the upper pressure level is 67,000; pay attention to the impact
of non-farm payrolls data on the US dollar index.
In the market, spot copper fell by 3760 yuan last week, and the market fell from a ten-year high, and the buying wait-and-see situation was
loosened.
After the year copper prices continue to rise, for downstream processing enterprises, processing fees are difficult to offset the loss of raw materials, inhibiting spot market trading
.
Therefore, although the market continues to decline, the overall quotation still maintains a discount situation, and it is difficult for merchants to significantly raise prices
.
In terms of import profit and loss, U.
S.
bond yields soared, the low rebound of the dollar index was about to test the 92 mark, the yuan was under pressure, the import profit window continued to close, and the gap narrowed to around
400 yuan / ton.
At present, the medium-term copper market still has a strong outlook due to factors such as economic recovery, green energy supply and demand gap and inflation expectations, but the short-term copper market volatility has intensified, or there may be multiple rounds of bottoming out.
It is expected that Shanghai copper will stabilize, or there will be a slight rebound, beware of the continuation of the pullback trend
.
It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the overnight US non-farm payrolls data, or affect copper prices
in the dollar index.
