Copper prices fell into a narrow range shock pattern The probability of downward movement after adjustment is relatively large

Macro aspects:

Domestically, China's September CPI rose 0.
7% month-on-month and continued to recover slightly to 2.
5%
year-on-year.
Extreme weather, the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day "double festival" and seasonality all pushed food prices higher
.
China's September PPI rose 0.
6% month-on-month and fell back to 3.
6%
year-on-year.
The rise in international oil prices has pushed the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries and oil and gas exploitation to increase month-on-month
.
China's GDP grew 6.
5% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 6.
7% in the previous month, and the growth rate fell back to a decade low
.
China's industrial added value above designated size in September increased by 5.
8% year-on-year, expected to increase by 6%, and the previous value increased by 6.
1%.

Internationally, housing starts in the U.
S.
fell more than expected in September, as construction activity in the southern U.
S.
fell the most in nearly three years, possibly affected by Hurricane Florence
.
U.
S.
building permits fell for the second straight month in September from a month-on-month, suggesting that home construction may remain tepid as mortgage rates rise and home prices rise
.
Initial jobless claims in the United States fell last week, signaling further tightening
of labor market conditions.
Tight labor market conditions and a strong economy could lead the Fed to raise interest rates
again in December.

Market: wire and cable occupy half of copper demand, but since this year, China's power grid infrastructure investment has been "unsatisfactory", although the situation has improved in recent months, but it is difficult to have better than expected performance
.
Looking at the production of air conditioners, since entering the off-season, the production of air conditioners has declined very rapidly
.
With the transmission of cooling in the real estate industry, the pull of copper demand in the air conditioning industry has weakened
.
In automobiles, after a relatively rapid decline in the previous months, September ushered in the peak production season, and production has rebounded, but without relevant favorable policies, it is difficult for production to increase
by leaps and bounds.
Under the test of the domestic economy, the central meeting has repeatedly proposed to accelerate infrastructure construction in the western region and boost market confidence, but infrastructure investment is expected to drive copper consumption to a limited
extent.

Inventories: Since mid-October, copper stocks in the previous period have reversed their previous downward trend, rising by 19,589 tonnes in two weeks, although LME copper stocks and COMEX copper stocks have continued to decline, offsetting some of the impact
of rising domestic inventories.
On the eve of November, the active stocking of downstream enterprises led to tight supply of spots, and the spot premium once rose to 500 yuan / ton, and the latest spot price gradually returned, and the spot even showed a slight discount, and the pulling effect on the futures price is also weakening
.

Copper Market News:

Chilean state-owned miner Codelco submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for a project that would extend the productive life of its aging Salvador mine by 40 years and increase production by 30%.

Codelco is the world's largest producer of copper
mines.
The project, called Rajo Inca, will convert an existing mine that has been operating since 1959 from an underground mine to an open-pit mine
.

2.
A senior official at Indonesia's state-owned mining company Inalom said it was seeking to finalize a majority stake transfer agreement
for Indonesia's Freeport company in December.
The agreement will allow Indonesia's state-owned Inalum to increase its stake to 51.
23 percent from the current 9 percent for a consideration of $3.
85 billion
.
If the agreement is reached, it will mean the end of the nine-year battle between Freeport and the Indonesian government for control of the
Grasberg copper mine.
The copper-gold mine is the second largest copper mine
in the world.

Outlook for the future market, from the perspective of the global macro environment, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the hawkish meeting in September, and the dollar index rushed above 96, and then fell back, which had a slightly neutral impact on copper prices
.
Overall, the early positive factors (sharp decline in inventory and temporary tight supply of spots) gradually disappeared, copper prices fell into a narrow range oscillation pattern, short-term demand may be difficult to improve, sufficient supply situation may continue, copper prices above pressure is still very large
.