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This week, the domestic copper price first rose and then declined, Monday copper highest to 49840 yuan, then unable to maintain the turn to decline, to Wednesday morning down to the lowest point of 45110 yuan, then stabilized and rebounded, and maintained a weak shock, and finally closed at 46630 yuan, down 1550 yuan, down 3.
22%.
In the external market, copper volatility fell this week, and after Monday's opening rose to the highest point, it reversed and fell, and then reached the lowest point on Wednesday, and then stabilized and rebounded to pick up, and the second half of the week was dominated by weak
shocks.
Macro: The United States has released important economic data during the week, the revised value of real GDP in the third quarter of the United States was better than expected by 3.
2%, and the US ISM manufacturing index for November released on Thursday was also better than expected, but the dollar index was weak first, so the market believes that the dollar has digested most of the economic recovery and interest rate hike expectations
.
OPEC and other oil producers wavered left and right, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate sharply during the week, but OPEC finally reached an agreement to cut production, and it is expected that the trend of oil prices in the later period will still affect the trend
of base metals.
Market: The supply of goods in the market this week is acceptable, smelters basically do not ship, imported brands are most, and traders' enthusiasm for weak downstream consumption shipments has declined
.
On the demand side, downstream countries still maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the sharply fluctuating copper prices, a small amount of bargain hunting and on-demand mining, weak starts, declining operating rates, and reduced orders have become the current norm
.
On the last trading day of the week, the market supply was flat, the supply of imported copper was relatively sufficient, smelters shipped a small amount, domestic brands had Daye, etc.
, traders were willing to ship, and some traders reduced prices and shipments due to tight funds at the end of the year, downstream manufacturers still maintained a wait-and-see price, and the weekend procurement and stocking situation was sporadic.
Inventories: LME inventories increased by 800 tonnes to 237,000 tonnes this week, the LME spot market as a whole has strengthened this week, the spot discount is narrowing day by day, the weekly average LME spot discount is $11.
25, narrowing from last week's discount of $15.
2, the LME spot market is still weaker
than in previous years.
Overall, the fundamentals of the copper market have indeed become stronger than before, but do not support copper prices out of the bull market, the early price by market sentiment and capital driven by the component is larger, at present, with the market sentiment gradually return to calm and the withdrawal of funds, copper prices are gradually returning to fundamentals, in the short term into the pullback stage, it is recommended to operate cautiously, pay attention to risk
control.
