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Recently, the market's view of copper has been polarized, with industry and traders not optimistic, and investment banks more positive
.
It is not difficult to understand this situation, because China is a copper-poor country, the copper industry belongs to the middle and lower reaches of the world, and the source of profit mainly depends on processing fees, and does not enjoy the dividends
brought by the rise in copper prices.
Without the support of strong demand, copper prices have continued to update their previous highs this year, confusing a considerable number of physical enterprises, starting with the downstream fine copper rod processing industry and cable industry
.
The most intuitive reflection in the spot market is that East China electrolytic copper spot discounted an average of 70 yuan / ton in April, and the average premium in the same period of previous years was about 50 yuan / ton
.
The North China market is even more deserted, Tianjin spot for a long time discount 300-400 yuan / ton, Henan spot also discount 300 yuan / ton, and last April Tianjin spot premium once reached 450 yuan / ton
.
The market price of electrolytic copper is much lower than the long order signed by the copper rod factory at the beginning of the year, and the execution of the long order has become a disadvantage
.
In addition, the domestic electrolytic copper has not ushered in the inventory inflection point after entering April, the futures market contango has lasted for a relatively long time, even traders have lost the basis for rolling arbitrage, there is no "reservoir" of trade links in the market, the peak season is not only not prosperous, but also a lot
deserted.
However, the short-term basic is not enough to lead the correction of copper prices, copper prices are still soaring, in addition to the strong overseas economic recovery, another important reason is that China has formulated the overall goal of achieving "carbon peak" by 2030, in this decade clean energy to gradually replace traditional petrochemical energy, wind power, photovoltaic into intensive construction period
.
Some institutions have previously predicted that by 2025, the average annual copper demand driven by domestic clean energy will be 550,000-650,000 tons
.
In addition, the consumption of new energy vehicles is unstoppable, the amount of copper used by new energy vehicles is 3-4 times that of traditional cars, and the construction of charging piles and the upgrading of urban power networks will increase the amount
of copper.
In general, the global economy is in a recovery trend after the epidemic, and the demand for copper will not be bad, but it just so happens that this year's scrap copper imports have recovered, crowding out part of the demand for electrolytic copper, which is the reason why
electrolytic copper consumption is not optimistic this year.
The rise in copper prices has concentrated the pressure on the downstream of the industry, especially the fine copper rod processing enterprises silently bear everything
.
However, perhaps we have quietly stood at a new outlet, the future demand for copper is expected to usher in the dawn, and the capital market has keenly smelled the future wind
.
