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Last week, copper prices continued to fluctuate at a high level, and the price center of gravity moved slightly upward, as of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2205 contract of Shanghai copper was reported at 73760 points, a weekly increase of 0.
82% or 600 yuan
.
Shanghai copper rushed back down last week, bottomed out near the weekend and stabilized, and the volatility of copper prices expanded during the week due to fluctuations in other varieties and the hawkish Fed
.
On the macro front, the situation in Russia and Ukraine deteriorated again, Zelensky changed his tough attitude, saying that he was ready to join NATO, and the situation reversed; In addition, Europe and the United States plan to sanction the export of Russian crude oil, coal and other resources, while Russia insists on settling in rubles, and the contradiction escalates; The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that the original plan was to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, but due to the impact of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, only 25 basis points were raised, and the follow-up outlook may raise interest rates by 50 basis points many times, the news stimulated the dollar to climb to a high in nearly two years, close to the 100 integer position, in summary, worried about the rapid rise in interest rates dragging down economic growth under the epidemic, along with the deterioration of the geopolitical situation to suppress financial market risk appetite, forming a short-term bearish sentiment, but copper prices showed a high and difficult to fall trend, The persistence of high inflation supported commodities in the second quarter
.
In terms of the market, spot copper rose by 60 yuan this week, closed on domestic holidays on Monday and Tuesday, and epidemic control in Shanghai and surrounding areas, resulting in obvious suppression of trading in the spot market in East China, transportation is still the main difficulty, good copper lift to more than 200 yuan, and the bargaining space is small, downstream demand is weak, the willingness to enter the market is low, and the performance has improved
on Friday.
In terms of import profit and loss, the US dollar index climbed to a new high in nearly two years this week, and the import loss volatility was not large, and the gap is now
around 600 yuan / ton.
On the whole, the Russian-Ukrainian war has been repeated, while Europe and the United States have further increased sanctions, energy and food price fluctuations have affected the overall commodity market
.
At present, the release of crude oil reserves by the United States and other countries has formed a market easing mood, but there is still a large gap in energy supply, and commodity inflation is still likely to continue, promoting subsequent copper prices
.
On the other hand, in the traditional copper destocking cycle, the low level of global non-ferrous metal inventories has brought support sentiment, and it is expected that short-term copper prices will still follow the overall commodity sentiment, and Shanghai copper may fluctuate upward next week
.
It is worth noting that the current copper price is still in the rising cycle, but the subsequent fundamental situation still needs to be confirmed, the market change will accelerate, and operational risks
need to be noted.
