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Last week, copper prices were mainly under pressure, and prices rebounded slightly on Friday, mainly from the macro level overseas pressure interest rate hike expectations and the risk of South African variant disturbance, market sentiment is cautious
.
The price bottomed out on Thursday but did not fall below 68,500 yuan / ton, fundamental support is still there, but the driver has not yet
arrived.
Near the end of the year, the improvement of the consumption side is difficult to cause accumulation, the strong reality pattern does not change, until the inventory contradiction is further highlighted, or will drive the price upward, the current is still not too bearish copper prices
.
In terms of raw materials, the overall supply of copper concentrate was stable during the year, new production capacity was gradually released, and supply was gradually repaired, but it was still disrupted
by factors such as the epidemic and strikes.
In terms of smelting, the output fluctuated to a certain extent due to the influence of dual-control power rationing, but the overall upward trend remained unchanged
.
Affected by last year's high base and the closure of the import window in the first half of the year, imports were generally not optimistic, but still basically maintained the same period in
2019.
In terms of consumption, the export of home appliances has become a bright spot in consumption, but the downturn in infrastructure and real estate still dominates consumption and is not optimistic
.
On the inventory side, global inventories fell to low levels
, driven by a combination of production and speculative demand.
On the macro side, subject to the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the global epidemic has not been effectively controlled, the weakening of traditional consumption, especially the continued downturn in real estate, the downward pressure on copper prices is greater, at the same time, the current global inventory is still at a historical low, and the gradual recovery of the overseas economy next year, the effect of domestic infrastructure investment may gradually appear, etc.
factors may lead to the downward trend of prices will not be very smooth, volatility may intensify
.
At present, the copper market is worried about weak demand in the future; On the other hand, it is subject to low inventories and tight
spots.
LME stocks fell below 80,000 tonnes, and stocks rose back to 41,000 tonnes at the end of last week, with overall inventories at low levels and inverse structures in the two markets
.
Short-term copper prices are more likely to fluctuate in a wide range
.
