Copper prices are volatile and waiting for inventory inflection points to appear

Domestically, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission announced that the work of ensuring coal supply and stabilizing prices has achieved phased results, and the national coal supply and demand situation has improved significantly
.
According to market research, the wholesale price of zero diesel in Hebei has now dropped by more than 1,000 yuan per ton
.
The macro leverage ratio decreased by 0.
6 percentage points in the third quarter of 2021, from 265.
4% at the end of the second quarter to 264.
8%; In the first three quarters, a total of 5.
3 percentage points
decreased.
From the perspective of deleveraging, the macro leverage ratio will be stable
in the future.

On the supply side, affected by weather and epidemic prevention and control, the transportation of copper concentrate in Alashankou continues to be disrupted, and the pressure on raw material supply of smelters in northwest China continues
.
The wave of anti-mining protests in Peru is intensifying, with many protesters demanding restrictions on mining at the source of the basin and intensified
disturbances at the end of overseas mines.
The weekly TC index was 62.
59, down 0.
25
month-on-month.

On the consumer side, the recent nationwide power limit has weakened, and the weekly operating rate of fine copper rods is 67.
3%, an increase of 10.
08%
over last week.
At the same time, affected by the weakening of real estate demand, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises in October was 80.
45%, a decrease of 3.
87% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 14.
23%.

In November, under the reduction of the power gap in the provinces, the power rationing policy will be eased, and it is expected that the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises in November will be 82.
64%, an increase of 2.
15% month-on-month, showing a weak rebound
.

On the whole, on the macro side, the Bank of England released doves, the Fed's Taper boots landed, and Powell's speech was generally dovish
.
OPEC maintained its original production increase plan, Saudi Arabia raised oil prices, and Biden's 550 billion infrastructure bill was passed, which supported copper prices
.
However, the US non-farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, boosting market expectations
of interest rate hikes.

From a fundamental point of view, the supply side continues to be disrupted, and after the gold nine silver ten, the weakening demand shows on the processing side
.
At the same time, copper scrap and inventories are supportive of copper prices, and copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate until the inventory inflection point occurs
.