Copper prices are volatile and stronger, and there is adjustment pressure in the short term

Last week, the domestic epidemic prevention and control was further relaxed, and it is expected to gradually return to the pre-epidemic living state, Jiangsu and Zhejiang enterprises have organized groups to go abroad to seek orders, and the recovery of the demand side is expected to be strong, which is obviously favorable to industrial metals; The Fed's interest rate hike is approaching, the dollar continued its downward trend during the week, and under the tone of the Fed's dovish turn, the outer metal released upward pressure, and London copper hit a new half-year high, breaking through $
8600 intraday.
Paying attention to the landing of interest rate hikes may guide the dollar to stop falling and stabilize, as well as relax the short-term adjustment pressure
on copper prices.

In terms of the market, various regions have gradually relaxed control, but the recovery of downstream orders is not yet obvious, coupled with the high level of futures, weak buying in the spot market, and the increase in inventories in the previous week, the premium may still be lowered
.
In terms of import profit and loss, the US dollar fell during the week, the RMB appreciated more, and the export profit window continued to open, maintaining around 700 yuan / ton, or attracting an increase
in electrolytic copper exports in December.

This round of the market is similar to the beginning of November, and the market is still trading macro strong expectations
.
Weekly Neren copper broke through the previous high of $8600 and reached a maximum of $
8618.
However, due to exchange rate reasons, the main force of Shanghai copper is still more than a thousand yuan
away from the previous high of 68420.

Against the background of the significant decline in the US dollar index and the multi-dimensional increase of domestic favorable policies, the RMB exchange rate has recently appreciated sharply
.
At present, copper prices are in the game stage of strong expectations and weak reality, and there is still great uncertainty
in the subsequent path.
Under the background of loose copper mine supply in 2023, whether the downstream consumption potential can be smoothly released with the opening policy remains to be verified
.
Approaching the Fed's December interest rate decision, pay attention to whether next week's CPI data can exceed expectations to the downside to help copper prices break through the current range
.