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Since the first quarter, domestic and foreign copper prices have hit a new high in nearly 10 years driven by macro factors, of which London copper hit a high of 9,700 US dollars / ton, and Shanghai copper rushed above 70,000 yuan / ton
.
However, high prices inhibit downstream terminal consumption, superimposed copper scrap has obvious advantages for electric copper substitution, downstream processing enterprise orders declined, the copper market in the first quarter showed the characteristics of peak season is not strong, copper prices maintained more than a month of oscillation consolidation
.
Looking forward to the second quarter, under the background of the global economy maintaining a stable recovery, the Fed's monetary policy has not yet turned, the risk appetite of the commodity market will not change, coupled with the delay in consumption of domestic downstream enterprises, the industrial side is favorable to provide marginal support for copper prices, it is expected that copper prices have limited space for correction, and the probability of strong oscillation operation in the later period is large
.
On Friday, the US and European stocks continued to rise, and US stocks continued to hit new highs, and Biden's policy announced the 2022 budget proposal, an increase of 8.
4%
year-on-year.
In terms of data, the US PPI increased by 4.
2% in March, compared with 4.
4% in March released by China, but because last March was when commodity prices fell to their lowest level in many years due to the epidemic panic, Powell said that vaccination accelerated the economic recovery, but development is still uneven, and inflation is distorted by base effects, which is expected to reach 2.
4% this year but will fall
back next year.
The ECB said it could discuss increasing emergency bond purchases if necessary
.
At present, the agency has further raised the US economic growth forecast, and the overall post-epidemic growth momentum has been strengthened
.
However, it is likely that the United States' proposal for comprehensive competition in China will continue to put pressure
on the domestic capital market.
Since entering April, downstream consumption has not seen a sustained recovery, and purchases have slightly increased and fallen into light after a small holiday, but spot stocks have turned flat to slightly increased, or hinting that supply has tightened slightly due to reduced imports and the start of concentrated maintenance of refineries
.
Since March, the decline in cable demand caused by high copper prices is the main reason for suppressing copper prices, and it is understood that grid orders have begun to be issued in some areas, and cable demand is expected to gradually increase
.
Therefore, it is expected that terminal demand will continue to rise, but the current copper rod processing fee is still maintained at an extremely low level of about 350, suggesting that there is a large hidden inventory of copper rods, and the demand recovery will first digest this part of the inventory, and it is difficult to see a significant increase in the demand for electrolytic copper
.
In summary, the short-term copper market in the absence of further bearish pressure, the price further correction space is limited, and with the global macro stabilization, downstream replenishment is expected, it is expected that copper prices in April around 63,000-65,000 yuan / ton will be strongly supported, and the probability of further rebound is large, downstream enterprises can consider bargain hunting a small amount of buying to lock in costs
.
