Copper prices are slightly weak, and it is difficult to maintain the rally

Off-season market, downstream overall demand is not good
.
From January to June, the cumulative value of power grid capital construction investment was 164.
4 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 19.
3%
year-on-year.
From January to June, the cumulative value of power grid capital construction investment was 164.
4 billion yuan, a cumulative decrease of 19.
3%
year-on-year.
This year's cool summer limited the sales of air conditioners from July to August, and the overall sales of air conditioners in the third quarter remained cautious
.
At present, the terminal is still in the consumption off-season market, while new orders in the transportation, home appliances, and power industries weaken, construction starts have also slowed down
due to the impact of high temperatures.
In the off-season of domestic demand, driven by the absence of favorable fundamentals, the market is unwilling to blindly chase higher
.
The market is highly risk-aversion, and investors are bullish on safe-haven assets
such as gold, government bonds, and bitcoin.

At present, domestic economic growth remains resilient, but the external environment is uncertain, and it is necessary to beware of the adverse effects
of factors such as the slump in the global manufacturing PMI index and the trade gap between China and the United States.
The intensification of Brexit sentiment in the UK, coupled with the UK's weaker-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter, has intensified
the trend of economic weakness in Europe.
In terms of Sino-US trade, the current market tension has ended, but the substantive problems have not been resolved, and risks remain.

The data of the European and American production industry is sluggish, the downward pressure on the international economy continues, and it is difficult for copper prices to rebound sharply under economic worries
.

Global copper concentrate supply is tight, and recently announced copper mine production at major mines is generally less than expected, Chile's state-run copper company Codelco copper production in the first half of this year fell 12.
1% from a year ago to 769,400 tons
.
BHP's Escondida copper mine, the world's largest copper mine, also fell 12% in the first half of the year from a year earlier to 569,900 tonnes
.
TC fees continue their downward trend
.
Under the interference of frequent news at the mine end, the current market supply shortage has not been completely alleviated, and copper concentrate production is expected to stabilize
by the end of the third quarter.

In addition to the tight supply of copper concentrate to support copper prices, the recent market scrap copper resources are also tight, which can support copper prices
.
Recently, strict environmental protection inspections, some scrap copper recycling bases and recyclers have been affected, for example, Shandong's East China Nonferrous Metals City, which has been closed for nearly a month due to environmental protection reasons, and has still not been opened.

In addition to Shandong, Henan, Hebei, etc.
have different degrees of inspection, so the market scrap copper circulation resources have been greatly reduced, and the supply of scrap copper is obviously
tight.
Copper scrap copper rod factories can only maintain the purchase of scrap copper at high prices, the price difference between scrap copper rods and oxygen-free rods narrows, and the orders of oxygen-free rods have improved, driving part of the consumption of refined copper
.

In general, the current market bullish factors are limited, and it is expected that the market momentum will weaken after copper prices, and the rally is difficult to sustain and may weaken
again.
However, the bottom support of the copper market is also strong, and the bottom range will continue to fluctuate
in the short term.