Copper prices are on the upper side after the holiday and may continue to rebound in the short term

Externally, suppressed by the high level of the US dollar, London copper opened sharply lower at 4769.
5 US dollars / ton, continued to decline after the opening, and instantly fell back below the 5-day and 40-day lines, low at 4732.
5 US dollars / ton, and then supported by the weakening of the US dollar, Lun copper bears closed their positions at a low level, copper prices rose slowly, as of 16:40, London copper reported 4756 US dollars / ton
。 Intraday copper low rebounded, the United States held an interest rate meeting this week, the core CPI data is good to make the market expectations for the Fed interest rate hike increased, copper prices continue to rebound to suppress, the 5-day moving average through the 40-day moving average momentum is insufficient, the evening 5-day moving average support is yet to be tested, around 4740 US dollars / ton to do shock test
.

On the macro front, during the domestic holiday, the European Central Bank first stood still last Thursday, maintaining the benchmark interest rate of 0.
25% and the current QE scale unchanged, but the possibility of a rate cut within the year remains
.
The US CPI in August rose 0.
2% month-on-month and the August core CPI increased by 2.
3% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations, and the core CPI growth rate reached the highest since 2009 again, and the dollar was greatly boosted
.
At present, whether the Fed will raise interest rates in September is full of uncertainty, and the September interest rate decision
will be announced in the early morning of this Thursday.
In addition, on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision
.

In terms of the market, on the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, Shanghai copper followed the gap outside and opened high, rebounding by about 400 yuan / ton
.
Today is the last trading day before the delivery date of the 1609 contract, and the holder's quotation is for the 1610 contract
.
The basis of the next month is about 10 yuan / ton, maintaining the delivery level
.
The opening copper to the 1610 contract reported a premium of 120 yuan / ton, and flat water copper reported a premium of 90 yuan / ton, basically the same as before the
holiday.
The current copper premium is firm, which makes traders' enthusiasm for buying shrink, while the downstream post-holiday wait-and-see mood is significant, and the current market jump is not pursued
.
The intraday transaction was generally light, and the market waited for the quotation to be stable
after the change of month.
In the afternoon, copper prices were strongly volatile, and the market quotation on the last trading day closely followed the fluctuation of the market spread, and the next month there was almost no price difference to suppress the premium, so that it maintained the delivery level, reporting a premium of 70-110 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was at 37170-37270 yuan / ton
.

On the supply side, Anglo American's Los Bronces copper miners in Chile refused the latest pay terms on Friday, and the strike began again at midnight, with the mine, which produced a total of 402,000 tonnes
of copper last year.
In terms of news, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that domestic refined copper production in August rose sharply by 12.
4% year-on-year to 743,000 tons, and refined copper production in the first eight months of this year increased by 8.
7% year-on-year to 5.
489 million tons
.

Overall, intraday Shanghai copper was affected by the sharp rise in copper during the holiday, but the intraday position further declined, and the latest position has fallen to 445,000 lots, which shows that the domestic follow-up sentiment is limited
during the holiday.
Copper prices have been strong in the near future, and may continue to rebound in the short term, waiting for the clarity of the results of the Fed meeting for the time being
.