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On the last trading day of last week, the Shanghai copper 1704 contract opened at 47210 yuan / ton, and after the opening, the short market continued to flow out, and the copper price rose unilaterally to near the daily moving average, closing at the long black line at 47760 yuan / ton, forming a V-shaped reversal with the overnight trend, down 810 yuan / ton, down 1.
67%.
It is expected that copper prices will mainly stabilize in the later period, and further rebound brought about by short positions is not excluded
.
In terms of external trading, London copper opened at 5854 US dollars / ton, after the opening in the short closing of the promotion of the promotion, copper prices rely on the rising daily moving average, maintain a slow upward movement throughout the day, touch 5916 US dollars, compared with other metals back to the lack of momentum, rebound is not strong, as of 18:00, London copper reported 5900 US dollars / ton, up 47 US dollars, or 0.
8%.
Intraday Shanghai copper based on the 40-day moving average, with the fall of the dollar to try to counter-draw, pay attention to the United States January new home sales, February University of Michigan consumer confidence index and other data, London copper to low stabilization as the main goal
.
On the macro front, the minutes of last week's US FOMC meeting hinted that a rate hike would come "quite quickly", but the dollar was still weak first, and expectations for a March rate hike were still modest
.
Subsequently, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development hinted that it would take steps to stabilize the property market, raising investor concerns about Chinese demand, and copper prices were weighed
down.
In terms of the market, on the last trading day last week, Shanghai copper fell by more than 1,000 yuan, speculators maintained their value and made profits, a large number of shipments, and the copper discount still showed a downward trend within the day, and some warehouse receipts in the market continued to flow out, and the supply pressure further intensified, but after the copper price retreated, some downstream sporadic purchases were entered into the market, and the transaction improved slightly, but due to the greater pressure on the market supply, the market receivers mostly traded at a low price
。 In the afternoon period, Shanghai copper continued to rise at a low level, and the downstream transaction was obviously less than in the morning, and the holders took the initiative to expand the discount, flat water copper reported a discount of 240 yuan / ton - discount of 210 yuan / ton, a good copper discount of 180 yuan / ton - a discount of 120 yuan / ton, and the transaction price was raised to 47180 yuan / ton - 47420 yuan / ton, and the transaction was far less than in the morning
.
In terms of inventories, as of February 24, LME inventories decreased by a total of 15,050 tons to 214,000 tons, the average discount of the LME spot market narrowed slightly, and the weekly average of the LME spot discount was $13.
69, which was wider than the discount of $13.
81 in the previous week, and the LME spot market has now strengthened
.
The domestic spot market was as low as 280-130 yuan during the week, and the discount began to narrow at the end of the week, and it was 220-70 yuan on Friday, the market supply was sufficient, and the downstream has never seen a significant entry into the market
.
Overall, the current consumption season in China has not yet arrived, this year's optimistic expectations of copper consumption in the United States have been falsified, and there is no new theme in the shortage of copper mines, so copper prices have a big correction
.
However, with the advent of China's spring peak season, the real estate drag effect cannot be falsified in the first quarter, and it is expected that the bulls will make a comeback, when London copper will return to above
$6,000 / ton.