Copper prices are in an upward channel, and market risks need to be paid attention to in the future

Externally, London copper opened at 6020 US dollars / ton, Asian session London copper short-term rushed higher, recorded a high of 6035.
5 US dollars / ton, due to the continued rise of the US dollar index, London copper bulls began to retrace, copper prices fell back to the daily moving average, under pressure on the daily average, around 6015 US dollars / ton a line of consolidation, into the European session, with the dollar rushed to a high of 102, copper prices again lower, as of 17:15, London copper reported 5994 US dollars / ton
。 Intraday London copper high consolidation, recent Fed officials successively hawkish speeches, the United States March interest rate hike expectations increased sharply, the dollar index rose to restrict the trend of copper prices, pay attention to the number of first jobless claims in the United States that week, the expected data is good, the dollar index is running strongly, testing the pressure on the upper band, wary of the retracement
of London copper.

On the macro front, the latest Fed's Beige Book shows that despite the general optimism in the business community, the degree of optimism in the short term has cooled since the last report, mainly due to
the uncertainty of Trump's new policy.
In addition, the business community expects prices to rise
modestly in the coming months.
In addition, Trump delivered a speech to the US Congress on Wednesday morning Beijing time, covering infrastructure plans, tax reform, health care reform and trade issues
.
It said it would ask Congress for $1 trillion in infrastructure spending, with a focus on roads, bridges, tunnels, airports and railways, details of which have not been disclosed
.

In terms of the market, Shanghai copper continued to rise, speculators maintained stability discount shipments, market brand supply diversified, especially the local digestion-based northern flat water copper brand also entered the Shanghai market, after entering the second trading session, copper fell slightly, speculators into the market to absorb cost-effective low-priced sources, now copper discount has narrowed, reported discount 250 yuan / ton - discount 140 yuan / ton, market trading is still dominated by middlemen, especially after the copper price rises, downstream rarely enter the market
。 In the afternoon session, the plate is backed by the low consolidation of the daily moving average, as speculators continue to enter the market to collect low discount copper, the discount has narrowed, in the afternoon flat water copper reported a discount of 250 yuan / ton - discount 200 yuan ton, a premium copper discount of 160 yuan / ton - discount 130 yuan / ton, the transaction price is 48100 yuan / ton - 48300 yuan / ton
.

On the industrial front, Japan's Mitsubishi said a minor technical glitch forced the company to briefly
resume operations at a major copper smelter in Indonesia on Wednesday.
Strikes since January 19 have interrupted all operations
except refining.
In addition, according to foreign news, Freeport said that its Grasberg copper mine could not resume normal operations this year, and since January this year, the mine's operation has been interrupted
due to export problems.

Overall, for the future copper price, the potential profit has been reflected through the price, but the impact of some bearishness on copper prices has not yet been reflected, including infrastructure investment-driven copper consumption may be falsified, the lagged effect of real estate adjustment has not yet appeared and the potential impact of the Fed's interest rate hike, therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk
of the inflection point of demand growth that is difficult to realize.