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Since January, the rise in international copper prices has challenged the $10,000 mark, but as China's New Year holiday approaches, the risk of overseas economic and political uncertainty increases, base metals are expected to fluctuate widely, and consumption will be
dominated by early gains.
LME and COMEX copper rose 1.
24% and 1.
84% respectively during the holiday, mainly due to the retreat
of the US dollar index.
From January 27, the dollar index retreated from a high of 97.
22 to around
95.
46.
On the news, LME copper stocks continued to edge lower to 82,400 tonnes
.
In terms of macro, at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the world's major economies represented by China, the United States and Europe are experiencing a completely different new crown variant virus epidemic and the pressure of winter energy supply in the northern hemisphere, and the different orientations of domestic and foreign monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy have also promoted the intensification of the differentiation of the global industrial chain, the return of overseas orders and the continuation of the game of profit redistribution, while with the gradual clarification of the attitude and policy attitude of domestic and foreign regulators, overseas suppression of inflation and domestic stable growth adjustment structure have become the main theme.
Financial institutions' arbitrage hedging transactions with multiple CPI and short PPI may come to an end, while industrial chain enterprises may face a situation
where the RMB exchange rate peaks in stages, resulting in the competitiveness of overseas orders.
Fundamentally, domestic non-ferrous metals under the new and old infrastructure investment to present the traditional consumption off-season situation, while the different guidance of domestic and foreign monetary finance and industrial policies is re-promoting the differentiation of the global industrial chain, the return of overseas orders and the continuation of the game of profit redistribution, with the recent domestic and foreign financial supervision and policy attitude gradually clear, overseas suppression of inflation domestic steady growth adjustment structure has become the main theme, industrial chain enterprises may face the RMB exchange rate phased peak leading to the improvement of overseas order competitiveness situation.
It is expected that under the severe situation that the domestic and foreign political and trade situation is still complex and changeable, it is necessary to be vigilant against the threat of tightening supply in metal resource regions such as Southeast Asia, South America and Africa, and the rebound driven by financial capital driven by the reversal of market sentiment
.
Looking forward to the future market, non-ferrous metals are expected to further break through the momentum during the Spring Festival, it is expected to test the upper resistance in the short term and stabilize the lower support, and it is expected that there will be more rebound momentum when winter and spring come, it is recommended that speculative customers do not gamble heavily in the market turmoil, processing enterprises focus on locking in profit hedging, more focus on spread and price comparison opportunities, trend investors seize the big and small patience focus on the market structural rebound opportunities
.
