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On Thursday, Shanghai copper was weak and volatile in the morning, and closed after the afternoon rush to close Xiaoyang, the main monthly 2211 contract opened at 62230 yuan / ton, and the daily close was 62270 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton, or 0.
10%.
The dollar strengthened, the Federal Reserve continued to adhere to aggressive interest rate hike expectations unchanged, the macro atmosphere is not optimistic, but the growth of domestic and foreign copper inventories has temporarily stopped, and both have declined, which has supported
copper prices.
In terms of spot, on October 20, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 62870-62910 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton; Liter 810-liter 850, up 30 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the quotation and shipment of the holder is relatively delayed, the receiver is mainly based on the purchase of just needs, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods within the day is general, and the overall transaction performance is flat
.
In terms of inventories, as of October 20, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 2,300 tons, or 136,700 tons, by 1.
65%, and London copper registered warehouse receipts were 74,075 tons, and warehouse receipts were cancelled by 62,625 tons; As of October 20, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper futures in the previous period was 65,070 tons, a decrease of 5,477 tons
from the previous day.
Under the previous successive large increases, copper inventories in London and Shanghai have both fallen at a high level, but the extent is relatively limited
.
On the supply side, the Antofagasta copper mine in Chile produced 181,900 tonnes of copper in the third quarter, 40.
1% higher than in the second quarter, and is forecast to produce up to 710,000 tonnes in 2023; Domestic smelter profitability continued to improve, electrolytic copper supply disruption gradually declined, and refined waste spreads widened
.
However, spot supply still maintains a tight pattern, and social inventories remain destocked
.
In terms of demand, the recovery of "gold nine silver ten" demand is less than expected, the downstream acceptance of high-priced copper is not high, October is not expected to show signs of such a strong return, high premium water suppresses consumption, downstream copper enterprise procurement is mainly
based on just demand procurement.
And the real estate industry is still weak, copper consumption is obviously dragged down, but domestic social finance and PMI exceeded expectations, in the new energy industry, photovoltaic and infrastructure boost, copper consumption showed a slight improvement
.
On the whole, the Fed is hawkish and does not consider turning back for the time being, the dollar has rebounded, and the macro atmosphere is difficult to say optimistic
.
However, crude oil prices did not fall but rose, which was positive for commodity prices
.
At the same time, LME copper inventories and Shanghai copper warehouses both fell, the rally was temporarily suspended, providing support for the bottom of copper prices, and the spot premium rebounded, which will limit the short-term lower space of the price, coupled with the spot supply still maintaining a tight trend, copper prices are in a wide range of short-term shock range adjustment, the center of gravity has not continued to shift
.
