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Copper prices fluctuated last week, slightly downward, and as of 3 pm on Friday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai copper was at 69590 points, a weekly decline of 1.
35% or 950 yuan
.
After a continuous correction from 76,000 in mid-October, copper prices temporarily found support at the 70,000 integer mark in early November, fell sharply on Friday at the high level of crude oil, and the surrounding metals fell below 70,000.
On the macro side, under the increase in domestic coal production and policy intervention, the negative impact on black and non-ferrous peripheral metals continued to decline, and there was still no sign of stopping the decline; The Fed's Taper boots landed, Powell's remarks were in line with market expectations, and the relevant bearishness was cashed in advance; Since the international oil price continued to rise at the end of August, the high levels on Wednesday and Thursday fell sharply one after another, and if it continues to weaken, it will increase the risk
of copper prices falling.
The global central bank's interest rate meeting basically ended during the week, the United States and Britain and other countries did not make moves such as raising interest rates, the European Central Bank's willingness to postpone interest rate hikes was obvious, the slowdown in global economic growth coupled with the high commodity prices brought about interest rate pressure and the short-term impact on copper prices weakened
.
From a fundamental point of view, the domestic plan to expand the export volume of electrolytic copper, the time is expected to ease the tight pattern of LME inventory in December, due to the price difference in the next month, the domestic premium will gradually return to the vicinity of flat water, and the support is weakened
.
The recent rebound height has gradually decreased, there is still a downside, the price has returned to the previous shock range, the fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly, the space below is expected to be limited, and the downstream can increase inventory
.
At present, copper fundamentals are affected by the low inventory of copper and weak consumption in the domestic economy, forming a weak pattern of supply and demand, which is greatly affected by surrounding metals and news, and after the impact of recent news gradually dissipates, or returns to fundamental price guidance, it is expected that next week's weak shock of Shanghai copper will be dominant
.
