Copper price trend volatility pay attention to the later demand recovery

On the macro front, the Fed's hawkish attitude is still resolute, but the impact of interest rate hikes on the economy and the induction of credit risks have begun to appear
.
U.
S.
stocks weakened sharply for two consecutive weeks, and the 10-year Treasury yield also fell sharply by 15BP
last week.
These factors, from the perspective of demand outlook, are of course relatively unfavorable
for copper prices.
However, on the other hand, copper and other commodities with certain value-preserving and safe-haven properties will also benefit from it, and the current high inflation level will also have a certain positive effect on copper varieties, so the impact of macro factors on copper prices is generally neutral
.

On the supply side, domestic copper mine TC continued to fall slightly by $0.
72 to $78.
56/mt
last week.
According to Mysteel, the Las bambas copper miners in Peru, a subsidiary of Minmetals, went on strike again, and the interference signal of raw material supply once again appeared
.
At the same time, copper concentrate port inventories rose another 150,000 tons from the previous week to 895,000 tons, indicating that logistics across the country are still not smooth
.
However, due to the relatively intensive maintenance of domestic refineries since mid-to-late May, the overall decline in TC prices is not large
.
TC is expected to decline slightly and to a relatively limited
extent in June as refinery overhauls are completed.

In terms of consumption, due to the deep back of the term structure of Shanghai copper at the beginning of the week, downstream receiving goods is relatively cautious
.
After the change of month, the market activity increases, and the downstream concentrated replenishment, thereby pushing up the discount quotation
.
At the same time, the price difference of refined waste is lower than a reasonable range, which is conducive to refined copper consumption
.
However, terminal demand is still relatively weak, and orders are not ideal
.
As a result, primary processing enterprises are mainly based on long-term order procurement, and the transaction of bulk orders is still slightly light
.
This kind of local fabric gradually changed after June as the impact of the epidemic gradually receded
.

Overall, the current epidemic has continued to weaken the pattern of supply and demand, but this situation will change
in the next June and July as the smelting overhaul ends and the impact of the epidemic fades.
The actual recovery in supply may be earlier than demand, coupled with the inflow of imported copper, so supply is expected to be slightly excessive
.
It is expected that the price of the future market will still be dominated
by a volatile pattern.
When the demand is further confirmed, the price is expected to show a strong pattern
again.