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Market review, base metals were mixed on Friday, indicating that copper prices fell back and short funds actively flowed
.
Among them, the Shanghai copper rebound was blocked, and the CU1901 contract traded in the range of 49070-49560 yuan / ton, and closed at 49180 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 0.
55%
on the day.
In the external market, as of 15:30 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6095 US dollars / ton, down 0.
80% on the day, and the support level below it focused on 6000.
0 US dollars / ton
.
In the market, the US dollar index closed higher overnight, London copper fell, Shanghai copper performance resisted the decline slowly, the monthly contract was under pressure of 49400 yuan / ton in a narrow range
.
The monthly price difference fluctuated at 80 yuan / ton in the early interval, and the holder maintained a stable quotation of 40-80 yuan / ton, but the transaction was difficult, the holder had a strong willingness to exchange cash, and had no choice but to take the initiative to lower the quotation, good copper was lowered to 60~70 yuan / ton, flat water copper was quoted to 30-40 yuan / ton, and the transaction improved slightly
。 In the second trading stage, the price difference in the next month once widened to nearly 100 yuan, and the holders of good copper intended to rise back to a premium of 80 yuan / ton, but the market refused to recognize it, the quotation could only remain unchanged at 30-70 yuan / ton, wet copper fell slightly from the previous day, the quotation discount was 70-40 yuan / ton, and the downstream factory bought the dip over the weekend, but the overall demand was still based
on rigid demand.
Gradually approaching delivery, the price spread in the next month is stable, the premium is also stable and difficult to break through, the space for trade speculation is narrow, and short-term spot may be difficult to have bright spots
.
On the news front, the Asian dollar index was volatile and now trading around 96.
859, as the Fed signaled that the economy was strong and kept it on track to raise interest rates in December, and expected "further gradual rate hikes".
In terms of industry, Chile's copper production from January to September this year increased by 7.
3%
year-on-year, due to the significant increase in BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine production.
Chile is the world's largest copper exporter, producing 4.
25 million mt of copper in the first nine months of 2018, with Escondida copper mine producing 57.
8% year-on-year to 950,900 mt
from January to September.
The Shanghai copper rebound was blocked during the day, suppressed by the strengthening of the US dollar index, the room for copper prices to rebound was limited, and the spot market was partially buying on the dip, but the overall demand was still the mainstay
.
On the technical side, the futures price continues to fluctuate in the moving average combination, closing the black line for 5 consecutive days, and the market shows a weak trend, or will test the 49000 mark again
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the CU1901 contract can consider short order intervention around 49,500 yuan / ton, and the stop loss refers to 50,000 yuan / ton
.
