Copper amplitude is large in the external session, and overseas institutions have lowered their price expectations

From a fundamental point of view, the CSPT team finalized the copper concentrate spot TC/RC guidance price of $70/ton and 7.
0 cents/lb in the fourth quarter, which was significantly higher than the $60/ton and 6 cents/lb in the third quarter, and the mine supply continued to repair
upward.
According to statistics, the impact of limited electricity and energy consumption dual control, the national electrolytic copper production impact in September is about 1.
5-18,000 tons, compared with the previous market for September production forecast, the impact is about 2%.

Since the main impact of power curtailment fermentation began in the fourth week of September, if it is relaxed to the whole month, if the power curtailment continues, it is expected that the impact on October production will be around
8%.

From the consumption side, in the nine provinces of the first-level energy consumption warning, the proportion of electrolytic copper supply is less than the proportion of consumption, and the power rationing has a greater impact on downstream copper processing, from the current situation, Zhejiang, Shandong and other regional enterprises have received the October power outage notice, which is expected to have a continuous impact
on downstream consumption.

In terms of stocks, the LME destocked 5,300 tonnes per week to 220875 tonnes; SHFE weekly destocking 1927 tonnes to 11656 tonnes; The weekly destocking of the social treasury was 02,100 tons to 90,100 tons, and the weekly destocking of the bonded zone was 11,200 tons to 251,100 tons
.
At present, they are all in a state of destocking, and the social treasury continues to hit a low
.
From the perspective of the decline in SHFE and social treasury inventories, the decline in inventories has slowed
down despite suppressed consumption.
In addition, the market expects the inflow of imported copper after the festival, and in the context of the current continuous power cuts, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the inventory situation and observe whether there will be an inflection point
.

Overall, the energy crisis intensified during the holiday season, and overseas institutions lowered their expectations
for copper prices amid pessimism about the overall economic recovery.
The fourth batch of domestic storage is within market expectations, the supply of copper concentrate continues to repair fundamentally, and the impact of power cuts on downstream consumption is greater, and the current inventory is at a low level
.
It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the domestic power rationing policy and inventory changes
.